Red Stickers
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$5.00
Advertised RTP
88.85%
EV $4.44 from 38 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.50%
9,746 openings, odds method
Variance
19.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 19
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
74.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values38 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,843 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/1635473, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.85%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $5.00 | 88.85% | 38 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcontraband 0.0%exotic 1.6%#d32ce6 3.3%high 0.1%violet 0.3%pink 0.2%#4b69ff 57.9%#8847ff 20.9%Legendary 0.3%#d2d2d2 1.8%blue 1.9%#D2D2D2 11.6%best hit $1,450 (289.9x)