Orange Stickers
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$3.00
Advertised RTP
88.92%
EV $2.67 from 42 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.44%
15.3K openings, odds method
Variance
41.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 43
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
76.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 15.4K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/1635474, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.92%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $3.00 | 88.92% | 42 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedremarkable 3.9%#8847ff 16.5%#d32ce6 10.0%exotic 2.9%Mythical 2.4%pink 3.6%#eb4b4b 0.2%Exotic 0.5%#4b69ff 54.2%blue 3.5%#D2D2D2 2.3%best hit $379 (126.4x)