Spy Tech

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

Price

$2.10

Advertised RTP

88.83%

EV $1.87 from 85 items

Observed RTP, 30d

87.80%

16.4K openings, odds method

Variance

18.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 19

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

71.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

83.70%±16.942,524 openings

7 days

86.55%±7.1714.1K openings

30 days

87.80%±6.6516.4K openings

since tracking started

87.80%±6.6516.4K openings

66.0%83.7%101.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	2,524	83.70%±16.9	−0.6σ	odds
7d	14.1K	86.55%±7.17	−0.6σ	odds
30d	16.4K	87.80%±6.65	−0.3σ	odds
All	16.4K	87.80%±6.65	−0.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values85 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16.4K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| AUTOEXEC (Factory New)weapon · Ancient	1 in 33,333	$755	1.2%	0	0.5	—
Glock-18 \| Ghost Protocol (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 33,333	$710	1.1%	0	0.5	—
AK-47 \| AUTOEXEC (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$376	1.0%	1	0.8	—
Glock-18 \| Ghost Protocol (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 16,667	$351	1.1%	0	1.0	—
Glock-18 \| Ghost Protocol (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 11,111	$232	1.1%	1	1.5	0.68×
AK-47 \| AUTOEXEC (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 11,111	$213	1.0%	5	1.5	3.39×
Glock-18 \| Ghost Protocol (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$193	1.0%	2	1.6	1.22×
Glock-18 \| Ghost Protocol (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 8,333	$163	1.0%	3	2.0	1.52×
AK-47 \| AUTOEXEC (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 6,250	$123	1.1%	2	2.6	0.76×
M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 5,556	$113	1.1%	1	3.0	0.34×
USP-S \| Spiral Glitch (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 4,762	$94.91	1.1%	3	3.4	0.87×
AK-47 \| AUTOEXEC (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 4,348	$88.66	1.1%	8	3.8	2.12×
M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 2,857	$56.86	1.1%	7	5.7	1.22×
USP-S \| Spiral Glitch (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 2,703	$54.00	1.1%	4	6.1	0.66×
M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 1,724	$34.46	1.1%	6	9.5	0.63×
AWP \| Black Box (Factory New)weapon · Restricted	1 in 1,471	$29.47	1.1%	7	11.2	0.63×
USP-S \| Spiral Glitch (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 1,389	$27.85	1.1%	10	11.8	0.85×
M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 1,250	$25.10	1.1%	22	13.1	1.68×
USP-S \| Spiral Glitch (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 1,250	$25.00	1.1%	14	13.1	1.07×
M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 1,220	$24.42	1.1%	14	13.4	1.04×
USP-S \| Spiral Glitch (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 204	$21.64	5.7%	74	80.5	0.92×
Nova \| Smart Gun (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 115	$12.18	5.7%	125	143.0	0.87×
CZ75-Auto \| Hydraulics (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 112	$11.91	5.7%	138	146.3	0.94×
AWP \| Black Box (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 98	$10.44	5.7%	188	167.0	1.13×
M4A4 \| Dark Operative (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 72	$7.61	5.7%	234	229.0	1.02×
CZ75-Auto \| Hydraulics (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 58	$6.12	5.7%	297	284.7	1.04×
Nova \| Smart Gun (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 57	$6.05	5.7%	298	288.0	1.03×
AWP \| Black Box (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$5.26	5.7%	328	331.3	0.99×
AWP \| Black Box (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 80	$3.65	2.5%	217	205.5	1.06×
AWP \| Black Box (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 75	$3.45	2.5%	197	217.3	0.91×
CZ75-Auto \| Hydraulics (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 70	$3.21	2.5%	211	233.7	0.90×
Nova \| Smart Gun (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 70	$3.18	2.5%	260	235.8	1.10×
Nova \| Smart Gun (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 68	$3.11	2.5%	243	241.1	1.01×
CZ75-Auto \| Hydraulics (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 63	$2.89	2.5%	258	259.5	0.99×
MP9 \| Spy Prototype (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 63	$2.88	2.5%	248	260.4	0.95×
Nova \| Smart Gun (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 55	$2.53	2.5%	289	296.4	0.98×
R8 Revolver \| Monarch (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 54	$2.46	2.5%	309	304.9	1.01×
AUG \| Signal Scanner (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 52	$2.38	2.5%	325	315.1	1.03×
CZ75-Auto \| Hydraulics (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$2.28	2.5%	312	329.0	0.95×
MAC-10 \| Video Cam (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 685	$1.64	0.1%	24	23.9	1.00×
M4A4 \| Dark Operative (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 592	$1.40	0.1%	22	27.7	0.79×
FAMAS \| Corp Defense (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 452	$1.07	0.1%	31	36.2	0.86×
MP9 \| Spy Prototype (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 358	$0.85	0.1%	52	45.8	1.14×
AUG \| Signal Scanner (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 355	$0.84	0.1%	44	46.3	0.95×
R8 Revolver \| Monarch (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 351	$0.83	0.1%	53	46.7	1.13×
MP7 \| Base-2 (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 329	$0.78	0.1%	57	49.9	1.14×
Tec-9 \| Perimeter (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 325	$0.77	0.1%	49	50.5	0.97×
XM1014 \| Black Site (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 304	$0.72	0.1%	60	54.0	1.11×
SCAR-20 \| Arctic Camo Panels (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 287	$0.68	0.1%	53	57.1	0.93×
M4A4 \| Dark Operative (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 181	$0.43	0.1%	91	90.4	1.01×
MP9 \| Spy Prototype (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 177	$0.42	0.1%	111	92.5	1.20×
R8 Revolver \| Monarch (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 173	$0.41	0.1%	101	94.8	1.07×
AUG \| Signal Scanner (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 173	$0.41	0.1%	101	94.8	1.07×
M4A4 \| Dark Operative (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 148	$0.35	0.1%	106	111.0	0.95×
R8 Revolver \| Monarch (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 148	$0.35	0.1%	103	111.0	0.93×
AUG \| Signal Scanner (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 148	$0.35	0.1%	113	111.0	1.02×
MP9 \| Spy Prototype (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 148	$0.35	0.1%	111	111.0	1.00×
FAMAS \| Corp Defense (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 127	$0.30	0.1%	124	129.6	0.96×
M4A4 \| Dark Operative (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 127	$0.30	0.1%	120	129.6	0.93×
AUG \| Signal Scanner (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 122	$0.29	0.1%	127	134.0	0.95×
MP9 \| Spy Prototype (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 122	$0.29	0.1%	131	134.0	0.98×
R8 Revolver \| Monarch (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 122	$0.29	0.1%	133	134.0	0.99×
MP7 \| Base-2 (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 84	$0.20	0.1%	183	194.2	0.94×
MAC-10 \| Video Cam (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 72	$0.17	0.1%	235	228.6	1.03×
XM1014 \| Black Site (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 59	$0.14	0.1%	273	277.5	0.98×
Tec-9 \| Perimeter (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 55	$0.13	0.1%	297	298.8	0.99×
SCAR-20 \| Arctic Camo Panels (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 55	$0.13	0.1%	305	298.8	1.02×
XM1014 \| Black Site (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	1 in 46	$0.11	0.1%	350	353.3	0.99×
Tec-9 \| Perimeter (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 46	$0.11	0.1%	330	353.3	0.93×
MP7 \| Base-2 (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 42	$0.10	0.1%	371	388.5	0.95×
MAC-10 \| Video Cam (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	1 in 42	$0.10	0.1%	375	388.5	0.97×
MAC-10 \| Video Cam (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial	1 in 38	$0.09	0.1%	439	431.7	1.02×
MAC-10 \| Video Cam (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 38	$0.09	0.1%	410	431.7	0.95×
SCAR-20 \| Arctic Camo Panels (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial	1 in 34	$0.08	0.1%	517	485.6	1.06×
MP7 \| Base-2 (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial	1 in 34	$0.08	0.1%	496	485.6	1.02×
XM1014 \| Black Site (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial	1 in 34	$0.08	0.1%	513	485.6	1.06×
Tec-9 \| Perimeter (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	1 in 34	$0.08	0.1%	502	485.6	1.03×
MP7 \| Base-2 (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 34	$0.08	0.1%	486	485.6	1.00×
Tec-9 \| Perimeter (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial	1 in 34	$0.08	0.1%	493	485.6	1.02×
SCAR-20 \| Arctic Camo Panels (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 34	$0.08	0.1%	511	485.6	1.05×
FAMAS \| Corp Defense (Field-Tested)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 34	$0.08	0.1%	480	485.6	0.99×
SCAR-20 \| Arctic Camo Panels (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	1 in 27	$0.07	0.1%	600	615.5	0.97×
FAMAS \| Corp Defense (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	1 in 30	$0.07	0.1%	553	555.0	1.00×
XM1014 \| Black Site (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 30	$0.07	0.1%	542	555.0	0.98×
FAMAS \| Corp Defense (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial	1 in 30	$0.07	0.1%	562	555.0	1.01×

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from g4skins:feed/cases/1635479, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AK-47 | AUTOEXEC (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertTakaNoritoPapito$2.10$376179.0x7d

Glock-18 | Ghost Protocol (Field-Tested)weapon · redemte$2.10$232110.7x3d

AK-47 | AUTOEXEC (Field-Tested)weapon · red$2.10$213101.4x14h

AK-47 | AUTOEXEC (Field-Tested)weapon · redŁO BABEN$2.10$213101.4x1d

AK-47 | AUTOEXEC (Field-Tested)weapon · redAndrzej SKINS$2.10$213101.4x2d

AK-47 | AUTOEXEC (Field-Tested)weapon · red$2.10$213101.4x5d

AK-47 | AUTOEXEC (Field-Tested)weapon · redJoe Horsepuncher$2.10$213101.4x5d

Glock-18 | Ghost Protocol (Well-Worn)weapon · covertbejmax skins.army$2.10$19391.91x5d

Glock-18 | Ghost Protocol (Well-Worn)weapon · covertFerdinando$2.10$19391.91x7d

Glock-18 | Ghost Protocol (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert☠♚Kilmaro♚☠$2.10$16377.67x18h

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

XM1014 | Black Site (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial$2.10$0.080.04x27s

SCAR-20 | Arctic Camo Panels (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial$2.10$0.080.04x27s

SCAR-20 | Arctic Camo Panels (Well-Worn)weapon · industrialtestosterone pig💉$2.10$0.070.03x27s

XM1014 | Black Site (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial$2.10$0.070.03x1m

SCAR-20 | Arctic Camo Panels (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial$2.10$0.080.04x1m

Tec-9 | Perimeter (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrialBetterThanYourSister$2.10$0.130.06x1m

MP9 | Spy Prototype (Factory New)weapon · milspec$2.10$2.881.37x1m

XM1014 | Black Site (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial$2.10$0.110.05x1m

AWP | Black Box (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedBetterThanYourSister$2.10$5.262.50x1m

Nova | Smart Gun (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$2.10$3.181.51x22m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.83%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:50 UTC	$2.10	88.83%	85

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedAncient 0.0%covert 0.0%red 0.1%classified 0.1%pink 0.9%Restricted 0.1%restricted 15.9%blue 3.6%#8847ff 3.3%violet 1.4%milspec 7.7%Rare 3.6%industrial 55.2%#4b69ff 1.1%#5e98d9 7.1%best hit $376 (179.0x)