Arabesque

Items, odds and values85 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 25.7K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 | Consequence of the Jinn (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$719	1.9%	1	1.3	0.78×
AWP | Sovereign Flame (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 16,667	$554	1.8%	2	1.5	1.30×
AK-47 | Consequence of the Jinn (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 9,091	$295	1.7%	3	2.8	1.06×
AWP | Sovereign Flame (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 6,667	$223	1.8%	6	3.9	1.56×
AK-47 | Consequence of the Jinn (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 5,000	$169	1.8%	7	5.1	1.36×
M4A4 | Falak (Factory New)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 5,000	$162	1.7%	6	5.1	1.17×
AWP | Sovereign Flame (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 4,167	$139	1.8%	4	6.2	0.65×
AK-47 | Consequence of the Jinn (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 3,333	$109	1.7%	13	7.7	1.69×
AWP | Sovereign Flame (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 2,941	$96.95	1.8%	6	8.7	0.69×
AWP | Sovereign Flame (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 2,857	$93.36	1.7%	11	9.0	1.22×
AK-47 | Consequence of the Jinn (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 2,703	$88.98	1.8%	11	9.5	1.16×
M4A4 | Falak (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 2,381	$77.87	1.8%	12	10.8	1.11×
Desert Eagle | Eastern Enigma (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 2,326	$77.10	1.8%	9	11.1	0.81×
Desert Eagle | Eastern Enigma (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,190	$39.36	1.8%	19	21.6	0.88×
M4A4 | Falak (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 877	$29.06	1.8%	32	29.3	1.09×
M4A4 | Falak (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 308	$21.33	3.7%	84	83.5	1.01×
Desert Eagle | Eastern Enigma (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 289	$19.98	3.7%	90	88.9	1.01×
M4A4 | Falak (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 287	$19.91	3.7%	100	89.4	1.12×
AUG | Lapis Lazuli (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 272	$18.87	3.7%	82	94.3	0.87×
Desert Eagle | Eastern Enigma (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 227	$15.72	3.7%	102	113.1	0.90×
P250 | Lotus Imprint (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 225	$15.58	3.7%	121	114.1	1.06×
Desert Eagle | Eastern Enigma (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 214	$14.80	3.7%	111	120.3	0.92×
Glock-18 | Ifrit Lattice (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 195	$13.49	3.7%	134	131.8	1.02×
AUG | Lapis Lazuli (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 112	$7.78	3.7%	243	228.7	1.06×
P250 | Lotus Imprint (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 103	$7.12	3.7%	232	249.8	0.93×
Glock-18 | Ifrit Lattice (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 102	$7.08	3.7%	239	251.3	0.95×
Tec-9 | Sultan (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 98	$6.77	3.7%	285	262.9	1.08×
MAC-10 | Arabesque Mosaic (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 61	$4.25	3.7%	399	418.6	0.95×
Glock-18 | Ifrit Lattice (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 92	$3.33	1.9%	271	279.3	0.97×
P250 | Lotus Imprint (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 92	$3.33	1.9%	280	279.3	1.00×
AUG | Lapis Lazuli (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 91	$3.30	1.9%	266	281.9	0.94×
AUG | Lapis Lazuli (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 76	$2.74	1.9%	355	339.5	1.05×
Glock-18 | Ifrit Lattice (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 74	$2.68	1.9%	371	347.2	1.07×
P250 | Lotus Imprint (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 73	$2.65	1.9%	348	351.0	0.99×
FAMAS | Snake Song (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 72	$2.60	1.9%	355	357.7	0.99×
P250 | Lotus Imprint (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 65	$2.35	1.9%	400	395.7	1.01×
AUG | Lapis Lazuli (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 64	$2.30	1.9%	395	404.5	0.98×
Glock-18 | Ifrit Lattice (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 63	$2.27	1.9%	426	409.9	1.04×
Sawed-Off | Lunar Wyrm (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 847	$1.95	0.1%	45	30.3	1.48×
Tec-9 | Sultan (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 769	$1.76	0.1%	27	33.4	0.81×
MAC-10 | Arabesque Mosaic (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 385	$0.88	0.1%	59	66.8	0.88×
FAMAS | Snake Song (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 345	$0.79	0.1%	70	74.5	0.94×
Sawed-Off | Lunar Wyrm (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 332	$0.76	0.1%	73	77.4	0.94×
Tec-9 | Sultan (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 301	$0.69	0.1%	90	85.3	1.05×
Five-SeveN | Desert Seal (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 301	$0.69	0.1%	66	85.3	0.77×
MP9 | Dune Asp (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 297	$0.68	0.1%	80	86.6	0.92×
PP-Bizon | Traitor (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 249	$0.57	0.1%	119	103.3	1.15×
Nova | Morning Sun (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 249	$0.57	0.1%	96	103.3	0.93×
Dual Berettas | Mystic Conjunction (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 244	$0.56	0.1%	99	105.1	0.94×
SCAR-20 | Sirocco Script (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 227	$0.52	0.1%	91	113.1	0.80×
FAMAS | Snake Song (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 188	$0.43	0.1%	141	136.7	1.03×
MAC-10 | Arabesque Mosaic (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 183	$0.42	0.1%	151	140.1	1.08×
Sawed-Off | Lunar Wyrm (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 175	$0.40	0.1%	133	147.0	0.90×
Tec-9 | Sultan (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 170	$0.39	0.1%	145	150.8	0.96×
MAC-10 | Arabesque Mosaic (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 153	$0.35	0.1%	171	168.1	1.02×
Tec-9 | Sultan (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 153	$0.35	0.1%	179	168.1	1.07×
FAMAS | Snake Song (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 144	$0.33	0.1%	170	178.3	0.95×
Sawed-Off | Lunar Wyrm (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 140	$0.32	0.1%	200	183.7	1.09×
FAMAS | Snake Song (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 114	$0.26	0.1%	196	226.1	0.87×
Sawed-Off | Lunar Wyrm (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 109	$0.25	0.1%	257	235.4	1.09×
MAC-10 | Arabesque Mosaic (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 109	$0.25	0.1%	239	235.4	1.02×
PP-Bizon | Traitor (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 61	$0.14	0.1%	440	420.2	1.05×
Nova | Morning Sun (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 57	$0.13	0.1%	460	452.5	1.02×
Five-SeveN | Desert Seal (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 57	$0.13	0.1%	486	452.5	1.07×
Dual Berettas | Mystic Conjunction (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 57	$0.13	0.1%	436	452.5	0.96×
MP9 | Dune Asp (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 57	$0.13	0.1%	444	452.5	0.98×
SCAR-20 | Sirocco Script (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 48	$0.11	0.1%	515	534.8	0.96×
Five-SeveN | Desert Seal (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	1 in 39	$0.09	0.1%	649	653.5	0.99×
PP-Bizon | Traitor (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 39	$0.09	0.1%	645	653.5	0.99×
Five-SeveN | Desert Seal (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial	1 in 39	$0.09	0.1%	637	653.5	0.97×
Nova | Morning Sun (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 39	$0.09	0.1%	661	653.5	1.01×
MP9 | Dune Asp (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 35	$0.08	0.1%	721	735.2	0.98×
MP9 | Dune Asp (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	1 in 35	$0.08	0.1%	743	735.2	1.01×
SCAR-20 | Sirocco Script (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	1 in 35	$0.08	0.1%	727	735.2	0.99×
Dual Berettas | Mystic Conjunction (Field-Tested)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 35	$0.08	0.1%	741	735.2	1.01×
Dual Berettas | Mystic Conjunction (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 35	$0.08	0.1%	750	735.2	1.02×
Five-SeveN | Desert Seal (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 35	$0.08	0.1%	722	735.2	0.98×
PP-Bizon | Traitor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 31	$0.07	0.1%	838	840.3	1.00×
MP9 | Dune Asp (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial	1 in 31	$0.07	0.1%	808	840.3	0.96×
Nova | Morning Sun (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 31	$0.07	0.1%	848	840.3	1.01×
SCAR-20 | Sirocco Script (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 31	$0.07	0.1%	832	840.3	0.99×
SCAR-20 | Sirocco Script (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 31	$0.07	0.1%	870	840.3	1.04×
PP-Bizon | Traitor (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 26	$0.06	0.1%	986	984.5	1.00×
Dual Berettas | Mystic Conjunction (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 26	$0.06	0.1%	1,012	980.4	1.03×
Nova | Morning Sun (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 26	$0.06	0.1%	999	980.4	1.02×

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from g4skins:feed/cases/1635480, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

ItemPlayerPriceValueMultWhen

AK-47 | Consequence of the Jinn (Factory New)weapon · covertkaczmarPL$2.10$719342.3x1d

AWP | Sovereign Flame (Factory New)weapon · covertHidden$2.10$554263.6x2d

AWP | Sovereign Flame (Factory New)weapon · covertTfujStary$2.10$554263.6x5d

AK-47 | Consequence of the Jinn (Minimal Wear)weapon · redHidden$2.10$295140.4x2d

AK-47 | Consequence of the Jinn (Minimal Wear)weapon · redHidden$2.10$295140.4x2d

AK-47 | Consequence of the Jinn (Minimal Wear)weapon · redHidden$2.10$295140.4x4d

AWP | Sovereign Flame (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertHidden$2.10$223106.0x13h

AWP | Sovereign Flame (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertslawar ♥ Shin Yuna$2.10$223106.0x23h

AWP | Sovereign Flame (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertVallejo$2.10$223106.0x2d

AWP | Sovereign Flame (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertHidden$2.10$223106.0x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →

ItemPlayerPriceValueMultWhen

PP-Bizon | Traitor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d9Hidden$2.10$0.070.03x26s

MP9 | Dune Asp (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrialHidden$2.10$0.070.03x26s

Tec-9 | Sultan (Factory New)weapon · milspecBetterThanYourSister$2.10$6.773.22x26s

Desert Eagle | Eastern Enigma (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pinkHidden$2.10$14.807.05x26s

Dual Berettas | Mystic Conjunction (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d9Hidden$2.10$0.080.04x26s

SCAR-20 | Sirocco Script (Field-Tested)weapon · industrialBetterThanYourSister$2.10$0.070.03x26s

Five-SeveN | Desert Seal (Field-Tested)weapon · industrialHidden$2.10$0.080.04x2m

Five-SeveN | Desert Seal (Well-Worn)weapon · industrialBukaj$2.10$0.090.04x2m

Dual Berettas | Mystic Conjunction (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d9Hidden$2.10$0.080.04x3m

Nova | Morning Sun (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d9Hidden$2.10$0.070.03x3m

listedcovert 0.0%red 0.2%#d32ce6 0.2%classified 0.1%pink 1.6%Legendary 0.3%violet 11.5%restricted 4.6%milspec 8.1%#4b69ff 2.5%blue 1.9%Uncommon 2.5%industrial 36.7%Rare 0.6%#5e98d9 29.1%best hit $719 (342.3x)