Autumn Bounty
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$2.50
Advertised RTP
88.85%
EV $2.22 from 31 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.67%
16.3K openings, odds method
Variance
7.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 12
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
66.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values31 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16.4K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/1635568, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.85%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $2.50 | 88.85% | 31 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.1%red 0.0%#ffd700 0.1%violet 3.4%restricted 0.1%classified 4.0%mil spec 0.2%#87c7ff 2.8%#4b69ff 15.8%#8847ff 4.5%industrial 10.6%pink 1.9%Legendary 2.0%milspec 5.7%Industrial Grade 3.2%blue 3.5%#5e98d9 41.9%best hit $307 (122.8x)