Spore Tracker
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$12.00
Advertised RTP
88.87%
EV $10.66 from 33 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.42%
2,130 openings, odds method
Variance
7.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 18
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values33 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,146 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/1635570, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.87%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $12.00 | 88.87% | 33 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed1 5.5%covert 1.0%Ancient 1.3%covert knife 0.0%epic 0.1%red 1.8%classified 5.4%extraordinary 0.1%#ffd700 1.3%#8847ff 0.7%restricted 7.6%uncommon 5.0%pink 2.3%mil spec 3.0%Rare 3.3%blue 4.0%blueLight 8.9%#5e98d9 14.5%industrial 34.2%best hit —