Autumn Tales
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$17.00
Advertised RTP
88.82%
EV $15.10 from 34 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.63%
1,111 openings, odds method
Variance
8.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 18
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
65.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values34 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,113 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/1635584, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.82%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $17.00 | 88.82% | 34 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.6%extraordinary 0.1%restricted 1.6%red 2.8%Immortal 0.3%covert knife 0.3%rare 1.7%#8847ff 1.1%pink 4.2%Master 2.1%classified 6.0%blue 12.2%mil spec 3.0%#87c7ff 3.4%light blue 3.9%milspec 3.1%#4b69ff 3.4%violet 4.3%Mil Spec Grade 13.2%#5e98d9 31.9%best hit $1,461 (85.95x)