Chicken Hug
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$2.50
Advertised RTP
88.88%
EV $2.22 from 38 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.42%
18.2K openings, odds method
Variance
10.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 16
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
73.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values38 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 18.3K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/1635599, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.88%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $2.50 | 88.88% | 38 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed#ffd700 0.0%covert 0.1%covert knife 0.1%extraordinary 0.1%rare 0.1%classified 1.8%restricted 7.0%#d32ee6 0.5%Mythical 0.6%violet 3.6%#8847ff 6.3%Legendary 3.1%pink 2.6%milspec 3.5%Remarkable 1.1%high 3.8%Rare 5.0%uncommon 3.4%#4b69ff 30.7%blue 26.6%best hit $313 (125.2x)