Mummy Tomb

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

Price

$10.00

Advertised RTP

88.85%

EV $8.89 from 31 items

Observed RTP, 30d

96.03%

3,430 openings, odds method

Variance

8.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 18

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

67.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

113.24%±30.43339 openings

7 days

95.10%±10.682,750 openings

30 days

96.03%±9.573,430 openings

since tracking started

96.03%±9.573,430 openings

82.0%113.3%144.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	339	113.24%±30.4	+1.6σ	odds
7d	2,750	95.10%±10.7	+1.1σ	odds
30d	3,430	96.03%±9.57	+1.5σ	odds
All	3,430	96.03%±9.57	+1.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values31 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,438 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 3,846	$941	2.8%	0	0.9	—
MP9 \| Stained Glass (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 2,439	$585	2.7%	3	1.4	2.13×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Freehand (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 2,174	$526	2.7%	2	1.6	1.26×
AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 671	$161	2.7%	5	5.1	0.98×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 654	$157	2.7%	4	5.3	0.76×
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Well-Worn) (Phase 3)weapon · #eb4b4b · Phase 3	1 in 483	$116	2.7%	6	7.1	0.84×
M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 478	$115	2.7%	12	7.2	1.67×
Nova \| Bloomstick (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 472	$113	2.7%	5	7.3	0.69×
M4A4 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 455	$109	2.7%	9	7.6	1.19×
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare	1 in 433	$104	2.7%	8	7.9	1.01×
★ Paracord Knife \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 240	$98.99	4.6%	24	14.3	1.67×
★ Bowie Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 181	$74.88	4.6%	23	18.9	1.21×
MAC-10 \| Toybox (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 116	$47.96	4.6%	36	29.6	1.22×
FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 104	$42.88	4.6%	34	33.1	1.03×
Glock-18 \| Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 81	$33.33	4.6%	56	42.6	1.32×
P2000 \| Woodsman (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 67	$27.60	4.6%	49	51.4	0.95×
Tec-9 \| Cut Out (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 50	$20.73	4.6%	64	68.4	0.94×
SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 50	$20.73	4.6%	64	68.4	0.94×
SSG 08 \| Detour (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 46	$19.72	4.9%	93	75.5	1.23×
XM1014 \| Tranquility (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 31	$13.39	4.9%	113	111.2	1.02×
AWP \| Exothermic (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 26	$11.39	4.9%	119	130.6	0.91×
P250 \| Visions (Factory New)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 25	$10.90	4.9%	128	136.5	0.94×
P2000 \| Space Race (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 24	$10.38	4.9%	143	143.4	1.00×
Dual Berettas \| Urban Shock (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 23	$10.13	4.9%	154	146.9	1.05×
CZ75-Auto \| Tread Plate (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 23	$9.91	4.9%	149	150.2	0.99×
Five-SeveN \| Buddy (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 28	$0.71	0.3%	128	121.1	1.06×
MP9 \| Cobalt Paisley (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 26	$0.64	0.3%	116	134.3	0.86×
M4A4 \| Choppa (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 14	$0.35	0.3%	234	245.6	0.95×
Nova \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	11.4%	$0.22	0.3%	346	390.7	0.89×
P2000 \| Grip Tape (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	12.5%	$0.20	0.3%	438	429.8	1.02×
Tec-9 \| Perimeter (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	24.6%	$0.10	0.3%	873	844.3	1.03×

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from g4skins:feed/cases/1635603, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

MP9 | Stained Glass (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff$10.00$58558.52x6h

MP9 | Stained Glass (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ffterrance watanabe$10.00$58558.52x3d

MP9 | Stained Glass (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff$10.00$58558.52x8d

★ M9 Bayonet | Freehand (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$10.00$52652.61x1d

★ M9 Bayonet | Freehand (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$10.00$52652.61x8d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

SSG 08 | Big Iron (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedDnaMoczanowa$10.00$20.732.07x6m

Dual Berettas | Urban Shock (Factory New)weapon · restrictedMati -_-$10.00$10.131.01x6m

MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Minimal Wear)weapon · blueBoSS Dżordż$10.00$0.640.06x6m

P2000 | Space Race (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$10.00$10.381.04x20m

Tec-9 | Perimeter (Well-Worn)weapon · industrialRollcix$10.00$0.100.01x20m

Nova | Candy Apple (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial$10.00$0.220.02x20m

CZ75-Auto | Tread Plate (Factory New)weapon · #8847ffRollcix$10.00$9.910.99x20m

MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue$10.00$0.640.06x20m

Tec-9 | Perimeter (Well-Worn)weapon · industrialRollcix$10.00$0.100.01x20m

FAMAS | Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink$10.00$42.884.29x21m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.85%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:50 UTC	$10.00	88.85%	31

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.7%#8847ff 4.4%classified 5.6%#eb4b4b 0.2%rare 0.2%gold 0.4%covert knife 0.6%pink 1.8%restricted 13.2%violet 1.5%#4b69ff 2.0%mil spec 2.2%Mythical 3.8%#d32ee6 4.0%blue 11.0%industrial 35.9%milspec 12.5%best hit $585 (58.52x)