Mad Voltage

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

Price

$18.00

Advertised RTP

88.90%

EV $16.00 from 34 items

Observed RTP, 30d

86.45%

1,819 openings, odds method

Variance

9.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 19

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

76.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

118.68%±37.10253 openings

7 days

91.82%±15.911,375 openings

30 days

86.45%±13.831,819 openings

since tracking started

86.45%±13.831,819 openings

72.0%114.3%156.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	253	118.68%±37.1	+1.6σ	odds
7d	1,375	91.82%±15.9	+0.4σ	odds
30d	1,819	86.45%±13.8	−0.3σ	odds
All	1,819	86.45%±13.8	−0.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values34 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,828 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Karambit \| Lore (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 4,000	$1,630	2.5%	0	0.5	—
AWP \| Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 4,000	$1,579	2.5%	1	0.5	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Night (Well-Worn)knife · gold	1 in 1,724	$694	2.5%	0	1.1	0.00×
MAG-7 \| Cinquedea (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 1,695	$675	2.5%	1	1.1	0.93×
P90 \| Astral Jörmungandr (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,042	$416	2.5%	3	1.8	1.71×
P90 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 633	$253	2.5%	2	2.9	0.69×
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 588	$236	2.5%	1	3.1	0.32×
M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 524	$209	2.5%	4	3.5	1.15×
AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 503	$201	2.5%	2	3.6	0.55×
SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 483	$193	2.5%	3	3.8	0.79×
★ Flip Knife \| Freehand (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 450	$180	2.5%	7	4.1	1.72×
★ Sport Gloves \| Red Racer (Field-Tested)gloves · epic	1 in 235	$176	4.7%	5	7.8	0.64×
P250 \| Apep's Curse (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 139	$104	4.7%	22	13.1	1.68×
R8 Revolver \| Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 136	$101	4.7%	13	13.4	0.97×
P2000 \| Corticera (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 110	$82.31	4.7%	14	16.6	0.85×
AWP \| Redline (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 105	$78.54	4.7%	13	17.3	0.75×
Glock-18 \| Fully Tuned (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 93	$69.46	4.7%	25	19.6	1.27×
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Minimal Wear)weapon · Covert	1 in 91	$67.78	4.7%	11	20.1	0.55×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Freehand (Minimal Wear)knife · sunny	1 in 86	$63.85	4.7%	18	21.4	0.84×
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 50	$37.26	4.7%	46	36.6	1.26×
SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 57	$33.95	3.7%	27	31.9	0.85×
FAMAS \| Spitfire (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 40	$23.83	3.7%	51	45.4	1.12×
XM1014 \| Banana Leaf (Factory New)weapon · Industrial Grade	1 in 36	$21.51	3.7%	63	50.4	1.25×
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 35	$20.55	3.7%	60	52.7	1.14×
Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$19.56	3.7%	53	55.4	0.96×
P250 \| Lotus Imprint (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 30	$17.65	3.7%	56	61.4	0.91×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 29	$17.10	3.7%	53	63.3	0.84×
Glock-18 \| Ifrit Lattice (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 26	$15.33	3.7%	72	70.7	1.02×
SCAR-20 \| Arctic Camo Panels (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 30	$0.76	0.2%	59	60.1	0.98×
SCAR-20 \| Blueprint (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 21	$0.53	0.2%	101	86.2	1.17×
MP5-SD \| Liquidation (Field-Tested)weapon · 1	1 in 14	$0.34	0.2%	150	134.4	1.12×
Tec-9 \| Tiger Stencil (Factory New)weapon · industrial	11.9%	$0.21	0.2%	209	217.6	0.96×
M249 \| Bock Blocks (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	15.6%	$0.16	0.2%	269	285.6	0.94×
Tec-9 \| VariCamo (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	23.0%	$0.11	0.2%	414	421.2	0.98×

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from g4skins:feed/cases/1635604, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AWP | Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert♕Twardowski_2005♕$18.00$1,57987.72x19h

MAG-7 | Cinquedea (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6$18.00$67537.47x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Tec-9 | Tiger Stencil (Factory New)weapon · industrial$18.00$0.210.01x27m

Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$18.00$19.561.09x27m

SCAR-20 | Blueprint (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff$18.00$0.530.03x27m

Tec-9 | VariCamo (Field-Tested)weapon · industrialbbbbbbbb skins.army$18.00$0.110.01x27m

Tec-9 | VariCamo (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial$18.00$0.110.01x1h

P250 | Lotus Imprint (Factory New)weapon · restrictedOskar$18.00$17.650.98x1h

Tec-9 | Decimator (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified$18.00$20.551.14x1h

M249 | Bock Blocks (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ffOskar$18.00$0.160.01x1h

SCAR-20 | Blueprint (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff$18.00$0.530.03x1h

Tec-9 | VariCamo (Field-Tested)weapon · industrialOskar$18.00$0.110.01x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.90%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:50 UTC	$18.00	88.90%	34

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed1 7.4%covert 1.8%gold 0.1%#d32ee6 0.1%restricted 9.0%classified 8.4%epic 0.4%pink 0.7%red 3.1%Covert 1.1%sunny 1.2%Legendary 1.7%Industrial Grade 2.8%violet 3.9%industrial 38.2%#4b69ff 20.3%best hit $1,579 (87.72x)