Cursed Harvest

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

Price

$30.00

Advertised RTP

88.88%

EV $26.66 from 34 items

Observed RTP, 30d

73.14%

1,111 openings, odds method

Variance

11.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 29

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

75.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

135 openings · below min

7 days

70.68%±23.02847 openings

30 days

73.14%±20.101,111 openings

since tracking started

73.14%±20.101,111 openings

28.0%86.3%144.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	135	86.17%±57.7	—	odds
7d	847	70.68%±23.0	−1.6σ	odds
30d	1,111	73.14%±20.1	−1.5σ	odds
All	1,111	73.14%±20.1	−1.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values34 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,121 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · #ffd700 · Phase 4	1 in 3,125	$2,615	3.1%	0	0.4	—
AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,961	$1,683	3.2%	1	0.6	—
AWP \| Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,852	$1,579	3.2%	1	0.6	—
M4A4 \| Poseidon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,786	$1,512	3.2%	0	0.6	—
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,136	$964	3.2%	0	1.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 714	$609	3.2%	1	1.6	0.64×
Desert Eagle \| Hand Cannon (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 617	$523	3.2%	1	1.8	0.55×
AUG \| Midnight Lily (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 524	$445	3.2%	5	2.1	2.34×
AUG \| Midnight Lily (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 503	$427	3.2%	2	2.2	0.90×
P90 \| Astral Jörmungandr (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 495	$422	3.2%	3	2.3	1.32×
AWP \| CMYK (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 373	$317	3.2%	3	3.0	1.00×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 263	$290	4.1%	3	4.3	0.70×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 234	$258	4.1%	2	4.8	0.42×
Desert Eagle \| Pilot (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 203	$223	4.1%	2	5.5	0.36×
USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 138	$152	4.1%	7	8.1	0.86×
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 113	$125	4.1%	6	9.9	0.61×
Glock-18 \| Franklin (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 112	$124	4.1%	6	10.0	0.60×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 62	$67.68	4.1%	13	18.2	0.71×
Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 59	$65.00	4.1%	16	19.0	0.84×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear)knife · Immortal	1 in 57	$63.16	4.1%	13	19.5	0.67×
★ Paracord Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 65	$58.30	3.4%	9	17.3	0.52×
★ Hand Wraps \| Desert Shamagh (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 56	$50.64	3.4%	17	19.9	0.85×
M4A4 \| Red DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 55	$49.09	3.4%	21	20.5	1.02×
AWP \| LongDog (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 51	$46.00	3.4%	24	21.9	1.09×
MAC-10 \| Propaganda (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 48	$42.93	3.4%	22	23.5	0.94×
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 43	$38.73	3.4%	29	26.1	1.11×
P250 \| Undertow (Field-Tested)weapon · Classified	1 in 36	$32.71	3.4%	34	30.8	1.10×
MAC-10 \| Nuclear Garden (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 33	$29.74	3.4%	29	33.9	0.85×
MAC-10 \| Cat Fight (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 24	$0.88	0.1%	38	46.7	0.81×
CZ75-Auto \| Polymer (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 15	$0.56	0.1%	85	73.4	1.16×
P90 \| Vent Rush (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 14	$0.50	0.1%	77	82.2	0.94×
AUG \| Triqua (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 10	$0.38	0.1%	119	108.2	1.10×
Tec-9 \| Rebel (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	10.5%	$0.35	0.1%	127	117.4	1.08×
MAC-10 \| Monkeyflage (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	34.2%	$0.11	0.1%	405	383.6	1.06×

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from g4skins:feed/cases/1635605, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$30.00$1,68356.09x2d

AWP | Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$30.00$1,57952.63x8d

★ M9 Bayonet | Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covertJeffrey Epstein skins.army$30.00$60920.28x6d

Desert Eagle | Hand Cannon (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$30.00$52317.45x3d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AUG | Triqua (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$30.00$0.380.01x42m

P90 | Vent Rush (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical$30.00$0.500.02x42m

Tec-9 | Rebel (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffkomandoszpon$30.00$0.350.01x42m

MAC-10 | Monkeyflage (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff$30.00$0.110.00x44m

AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedAndrew$30.00$38.731.29x44m

AUG | Triqua (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffJesse Pinkman$30.00$0.380.01x44m

MAC-10 | Propaganda (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6$30.00$42.931.43x1h

M4A4 | Red DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted$30.00$49.091.64x1h

MAC-10 | Monkeyflage (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ffBrenK$30.00$0.110.00x1h

MAC-10 | Monkeyflage (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff$30.00$0.110.00x2h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.88%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:50 UTC	$30.00	88.88%	34

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed#ffd700 0.0%covert 3.3%classified 1.7%restricted 6.3%covert knife 2.0%Mythical 8.2%Immortal 1.7%extraordinary 1.8%red 2.0%#d32ee6 2.1%Classified 2.8%#4b69ff 63.9%violet 4.2%best hit $1,683 (56.09x)