Power Strike

A case on G4Skins, first seen 9 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

Price

$2.00

Advertised RTP

89.00%

EV $1.78 from 32 items

Observed RTP, 30d

87.51%

22.3K openings, odds method

Variance

18.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 30

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

71.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

83.01%±8.3010.3K openings

7 days

87.51%±5.6422.3K openings

30 days

87.51%±5.6422.3K openings

since tracking started

87.51%±5.6422.3K openings

74.0%84.0%94.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	10.3K	83.01%±8.30	−1.4σ	odds
7d	22.3K	87.51%±5.64	−0.5σ	odds
30d	22.3K	87.51%±5.64	−0.5σ	odds
All	22.3K	87.51%±5.64	−0.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values32 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 22.4K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Ursus Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 3,704	$220	3.3%	2	6.1	0.33×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 3,704	$219	3.3%	4	6.1	0.66×
M4A4 \| Hellish (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 2,941	$174	3.3%	5	7.6	0.66×
MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 2,632	$156	3.3%	10	8.5	1.17×
M4A4 \| X-Ray (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 2,128	$127	3.4%	7	10.5	0.66×
Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,818	$108	3.3%	14	12.3	1.13×
★ Nomad Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 1,562	$93.06	3.3%	16	14.4	1.11×
USP-S \| Caiman (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 495	$29.48	3.3%	52	45.3	1.15×
AWP \| Corticera (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 452	$27.01	3.4%	64	49.6	1.29×
G3SG1 \| Arctic Camo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #87c7ff	1 in 251	$19.78	4.4%	95	89.3	1.06×
SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 250	$19.69	4.4%	105	89.8	1.17×
FAMAS \| Pulse (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 196	$15.46	4.4%	94	114.2	0.82×
Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 164	$12.90	4.4%	152	136.9	1.11×
MP9 \| Deadly Poison (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 142	$11.16	4.4%	131	158.4	0.83×
Rezan The Ready \| Sabreagent · superior	1 in 90	$7.10	4.4%	251	248.9	1.01×
XM1014 \| Entombed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 56	$4.43	4.4%	410	399.0	1.03×
USP-S \| Cyrex (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 52	$4.07	4.4%	437	434.2	1.01×
MAG-7 \| Copper Coated (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 65	$3.94	3.4%	358	343.1	1.04×
Five-SeveN \| Retrobution (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 58	$3.47	3.4%	418	389.6	1.07×
M249 \| Magma (Well-Worn)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 45	$2.68	3.4%	527	504.2	1.05×
Glock-18 \| Weasel (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 34	$2.05	3.4%	673	659.3	1.02×
M4A1-S \| Solitude (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 34	$2.04	3.4%	658	662.4	0.99×
Desert Eagle \| Naga (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 33	$2.02	3.4%	709	679.0	1.04×
MP5-SD \| Kitbash (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 33	$2.02	3.4%	698	679.0	1.03×
M4A1-S \| Fizzy POP (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 33	$2.01	3.4%	666	679.0	0.98×
Five-SeveN \| Dark Polymer (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 50	$0.93	1.0%	463	448.1	1.03×
UMP-45 \| Labyrinth (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 25	$0.46	1.0%	909	905.9	1.00×
MAG-7 \| Popdog (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 22	$0.40	1.0%	1,047	1041.9	1.00×
R8 Revolver \| Survivalist (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 22	$0.40	1.0%	1,022	1041.9	0.98×
P2000 \| Gnarled (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 16	$0.29	1.0%	1,438	1437.1	1.00×
Sawed-Off \| Fusion (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	16.9%	$0.11	1.0%	3,756	3788.5	0.99×
Tec-9 \| VariCamo (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	32.8%	$0.06	1.1%	7,249	7349.8	0.99×

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from g4skins:feed/cases/1635614, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Ursus Knife | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covertspkdzula_skins.army$2.00$220110.0x6h

★ Ursus Knife | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covertMskins.army$2.00$220110.0x1d

M4A1-S | Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$2.00$219109.4x3h

M4A1-S | Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$2.00$219109.4x18h

M4A1-S | Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$2.00$219109.4x1d

M4A1-S | Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert𝐏𝐔𝐊 Norris$2.00$219109.4x1d

M4A4 | Hellish (Factory New)weapon · rareMariano$2.00$17487.13x3h

M4A4 | Hellish (Factory New)weapon · rare$2.00$17487.13x9h

M4A4 | Hellish (Factory New)weapon · rare$2.00$17487.13x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sawed-Off | Fusion (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff$2.00$0.110.06x39s

Tec-9 | VariCamo (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial$2.00$0.060.03x39s

MAG-7 | Copper Coated (Factory New)weapon · blue$2.00$3.941.97x39s

M249 | Magma (Well-Worn)weapon · Mil Spec GradePOLSKI JOKER$2.00$2.681.34x39s

Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer (Factory New)weapon · milspec$2.00$0.930.47x46s

Tec-9 | VariCamo (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial$2.00$0.060.03x46s

M4A1-S | Fizzy POP (Well-Worn)weapon · blueDANIX77 skins.army$2.00$2.011.01x46s

Tec-9 | VariCamo (Field-Tested)weapon · industrialLight skins.army$2.00$0.060.03x1m

Sawed-Off | Fusion (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff$2.00$0.110.06x1m

M4A1-S | Fizzy POP (Well-Worn)weapon · blueDANIX77 skins.army$2.00$2.011.01x1m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 08:20 UTC	$2.00	89.00%	32

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.1%rare 0.0%classified 0.5%covert knife 0.1%#87c7ff 0.4%pink 5.1%restricted 4.8%mil spec 10.0%superior 1.1%blue 4.6%Mil Spec Grade 2.2%#8847ff 6.0%Mythical 3.0%milspec 6.0%#4b69ff 23.3%industrial 32.8%best hit $220 (110.0x)