KO Verdict
A case on G4Skins, first seen 9 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$8.00
Advertised RTP
89.07%
EV $7.13 from 32 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.92%
3,841 openings, odds method
Variance
8.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 14
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
68.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values32 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,846 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/1635615, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.07%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 08:20 UTC | $8.00 | 89.07% | 32 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.6%red 0.5%classified 4.3%rare 0.2%restricted 14.9%extraordinary 0.8%light blue 1.2%pink 1.5%violet 1.9%mil spec 12.4%milspec 21.8%industrial 5.8%#8847ff 2.9%blue 9.8%#4b69ff 21.4%best hit $813 (101.7x)