Lumberjack
A case on G4Skins, first seen 9 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$6.50
Advertised RTP
88.84%
EV $5.77 from 34 items
Observed RTP, 30d
95.13%
3,994 openings, odds method
Variance
11.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 25
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
71.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values34 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,424 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/1635630, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.84%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $6.50 | 88.84% | 34 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed1 7.4%legendary 0.0%red 0.2%covert 0.7%Classified 0.2%classified 2.3%covert knife 0.4%Ancient 0.6%violet 5.9%industrial 30.6%#d32ce6 1.4%mil spec 1.5%pink 1.7%uncommon 4.6%#4b69ff 19.2%restricted 5.5%milspec 12.9%blue 4.8%best hit $714 (109.9x)