Garden party
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$5.30
Advertised RTP
88.94%
EV $4.71 from 46 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.84%
7,366 openings, odds method
Variance
5.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 13
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
67.1%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values46 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,384 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/164, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.94%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $5.30 | 88.94% | 46 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed#8847ff 5.7%extraordinary 0.0%classified 4.1%covert 0.4%#4b69ff 6.7%#ffd700 0.2%restricted 29.0%Rare 4.7%mil spec 3.9%#d32ce6 0.5%industrial 4.9%violet 2.5%pink 3.5%milspec 1.3%consumer 32.7%best hit —