One moment
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$1.00
Advertised RTP
88.92%
EV $0.89 from 43 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.01%
53.3K openings, odds method
Variance
4.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
12.9%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
82.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values43 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 53.3K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/165, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.92%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $1.00 | 88.92% | 43 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%industrial 0.1%restricted 9.2%classified 0.6%Mythical 3.3%mil spec 82.7%#d32ee6 0.0%violet 0.0%#8847ff 0.3%Uncommon 0.1%Rare 3.5%best hit $147 (147.1x)