Aloha

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

Price

$18.20

Advertised RTP

86.66%

EV $15.77 from 20 items

Observed RTP, 30d

79.68%

875 openings, odds method

Variance

2.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

10.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

85.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

94.54%±22.64175 openings

7 days

76.59%±11.05708 openings

30 days

79.68%±9.93875 openings

since tracking started

79.68%±9.93875 openings

65.0%91.5%118.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	175	94.54%±22.6	+0.5σ	odds
7d	708	76.59%±11.1	−1.9σ	odds
30d	875	79.68%±9.93	−1.5σ	odds
All	875	79.68%±9.93	−1.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 875 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 20	$104	32.8%	41	43.7	0.94×
M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 20	$89.21	28.3%	35	43.7	0.80×
Glock-18 \| Brass (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$21.20	6.7%	41	43.7	0.94×
AK-47 \| Cartel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$17.36	5.5%	42	43.7	0.96×
FAMAS \| Djinn (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$12.55	4.0%	52	43.7	1.19×
'Blueberries' Buckshot \| NSWC SEALagent · violet	1 in 20	$12.07	3.8%	36	43.7	0.82×
MAG-7 \| Silver (Factory New)weapon · #87c7ff	1 in 20	$11.24	3.6%	46	43.7	1.05×
M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 20	$7.98	2.5%	41	43.7	0.94×
G3SG1 \| Flux (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$7.66	2.4%	47	43.7	1.07×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 20	$7.04	2.2%	62	43.7	1.42×
CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$6.99	2.2%	31	43.7	0.71×
MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 20	$5.04	1.6%	50	43.7	1.14×
AK-47 \| Slate (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$3.89	1.2%	40	43.7	0.91×
Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Classified	1 in 20	$2.34	0.7%	47	43.7	1.07×
AWP \| PAW (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 20	$2.17	0.7%	35	43.7	0.80×
AUG \| Aristocrat (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 20	$1.58	0.5%	52	43.7	1.19×
AK-47 \| Uncharted (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 20	$0.95	0.3%	48	43.7	1.10×
AWP \| Acheron (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 20	$0.92	0.3%	43	43.7	0.98×
CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$0.92	0.3%	49	43.7	1.12×
Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 20	$0.83	0.3%	37	43.7	0.85×

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from g4skins:feed/cases/177, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A1-S | Basilisk (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff$18.20$7.980.44x25m

MP5-SD | Phosphor (Field-Tested)weapon · LegendaryJOHN CENA skins.army$18.20$5.040.28x25m

Dual Berettas | Twin Turbo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Classified$18.20$2.340.13x43m

MAG-7 | Silver (Factory New)weapon · #87c7ff$18.20$11.240.62x43m

P2000 | Fire Elemental (Factory New)weapon · covertTunc Wur$18.20$1045.69x43m

P2000 | Fire Elemental (Factory New)weapon · covert$18.20$1045.69x1h

Dual Berettas | Twin Turbo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Classified$18.20$2.340.13x1h

MP9 | Food Chain (Minimal Wear)weapon · pinkTunc Wur$18.20$7.040.39x1h

P2000 | Fire Elemental (Factory New)weapon · covert$18.20$1045.69x3h

Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested)weapon · MythicalKICK/YT: Prz3mqu$18.20$0.830.05x3h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.66%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 05:19 UTC	$18.20	86.66%	20
2 Nov, 21:40 UTC	$20.00	86.72%	20

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 10.0%restricted 20.0%classified 15.0%violet 5.0%#87c7ff 5.0%#8847ff 10.0%pink 5.0%Legendary 5.0%Classified 5.0%Mythical 10.0%mil spec 5.0%#4b69ff 5.0%best hit —