MP7
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$1.00
Advertised RTP
88.93%
EV $0.89 from 54 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.27%
65.8K openings, odds method
Variance
8.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 16
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
74.2%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values54 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 65.8K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/18, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.93%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $1.00 | 88.93% | 54 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed#4b69ff 13.1%covert 0.1%mil spec 6.2%industrial 0.6%#eb4b4b 0.1%#8847ff 1.4%blue 1.9%#777777 26.0%restricted 1.8%consumer 24.8%classified 0.4%#b0c3d9 0.4%#87c7ff 15.9%Mythical 5.6%Rare 1.8%best hit $103 (103.2x)