Move like a boss
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$8.30
Advertised RTP
86.22%
EV $7.16 from 50 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.81%
3,880 openings, odds method
Variance
0.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
76.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values50 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,891 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/180, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.22%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 05:19 UTC | $8.30 | 86.22% | 50 |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $9.30 | 86.35% | 50 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedpink 4.0%classified 26.0%#d32ce6 2.0%restricted 34.0%violet 6.0%#8847ff 16.0%Legendary 6.0%#d32ee6 2.0%Restricted 2.0%Mythical 2.0%best hit —