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Small gift

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

Price
$1.80
Advertised RTP
85.67%
EV $1.54 from 50 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.31%
19.1K openings, odds method
Variance
0.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
18.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
72.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
82.12%±3.332,929 openings
7 days
84.94%±1.4315.9K openings
30 days
85.31%±1.3019.1K openings
since tracking started
85.31%±1.3019.1K openings
78.0%82.8%87.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h2,92982.12%±3.33−2.1σodds
7d15.9K84.94%±1.43−1.0σodds
30d19.1K85.31%±1.30−0.5σodds
All19.1K85.31%±1.30−0.5σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values50 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 19.1K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
Desert Eagle | Sputnik (Factory New)weapon · blue1 in 50$8.4010.9%388382.61.01×
M4A4 | Magnesium (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 50$6.708.7%393382.61.03×
Glock-18 | Bunsen Burner (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 50$5.367.0%382382.61.00×
MP5-SD | Condition Zero (Factory New)weapon · Rare1 in 50$4.065.3%375382.60.98×
Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 50$3.774.9%393382.61.03×
AUG | Amber Fade (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 50$3.424.4%364382.60.95×
Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 50$2.943.8%383382.61.00×
Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 50$2.833.7%363382.60.95×
PP-Bizon | Osiris (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet1 in 50$2.633.4%363382.60.95×
MAC-10 | Last Dive (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 50$2.012.6%359382.60.94×
AUG | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare1 in 50$1.962.5%370382.60.97×
Desert Eagle | Sputnik (Well-Worn)weapon · blue1 in 50$1.902.5%371382.60.97×
Desert Eagle | Sputnik (Field-Tested)weapon · blue1 in 50$1.862.4%395382.61.03×
AUG | Amber Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 50$1.862.4%364382.60.95×
CZ75-Auto | Tacticat (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 50$1.582.0%350382.60.91×
P2000 | Acid Etched (Minimal Wear)weapon · 31 in 50$1.471.9%354382.60.93×
AWP | Pit Viper (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 50$1.431.9%359382.60.94×
MAC-10 | Last Dive (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff1 in 50$1.421.8%391382.61.02×
PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 50$1.361.8%389382.61.02×
CZ75-Auto | Tacticat (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff1 in 50$1.301.7%420382.61.10×
CZ75-Auto | Tacticat (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff1 in 50$1.291.7%366382.60.96×
P90 | Grim (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec1 in 50$1.251.6%368382.60.96×
AWP | Pit Viper (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff1 in 50$1.191.5%408382.61.07×
AWP | Pit Viper (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted1 in 50$1.171.5%375382.60.98×
CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 50$0.961.2%374382.60.98×
R8 Revolver | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 50$0.961.2%422382.61.10×
MAC-10 | Allure (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff1 in 50$0.921.2%399382.61.04×
Glock-18 | Bunsen Burner (Battle-Scarred)weapon · 11 in 50$0.871.1%421382.61.10×
Galil AR | Connexion (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 50$0.851.1%392382.61.02×
Desert Eagle | Bronze Deco (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 50$0.841.1%376382.60.98×
MAG-7 | Heaven Guard (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 50$0.730.9%427382.61.12×
MP9 | Bioleak (Factory New)weapon · Rare1 in 50$0.670.9%392382.61.02×
Desert Eagle | Bronze Deco (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 50$0.560.7%367382.60.96×
M4A4 | Magnesium (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec1 in 50$0.550.7%370382.60.97×
Dual Berettas | Elite 1.6 (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec1 in 50$0.540.7%395382.61.03×
Dual Berettas | Elite 1.6 (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 50$0.530.7%373382.60.97×
Galil AR | Connexion (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 50$0.510.7%372382.60.97×
MAG-7 | Heaven Guard (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec1 in 50$0.500.6%376382.60.98×
P250 | Cyber Shell (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff1 in 50$0.440.6%391382.61.02×
MAC-10 | Allure (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff1 in 50$0.440.6%395382.61.03×
Desert Eagle | Bronze Deco (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 50$0.410.5%335382.60.88×
MP9 | Bioleak (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec1 in 50$0.360.5%381382.61.00×
CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 50$0.350.5%387382.61.01×
Desert Eagle | Bronze Deco (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 50$0.330.4%394382.61.03×
AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon1 in 50$0.320.4%385382.61.01×
CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 50$0.310.4%384382.61.00×
AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #87c7ff1 in 50$0.290.4%417382.61.09×
CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 50$0.260.3%388382.61.01×
AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial1 in 50$0.250.3%401382.61.05×
AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial1 in 50$0.190.2%372382.60.97×
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from g4skins:feed/cases/181, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
AWP | Pit Viper (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted$1.80$1.170.65x
M4A4 | Magnesium (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$1.80$6.703.72x
PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$1.80$1.360.76x
AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon👑LySy™$1.80$0.320.18x
AWP | Pit Viper (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff$1.80$1.190.66x
AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #87c7ff$1.80$0.290.16x
M4A4 | Magnesium (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$1.80$6.703.72x
Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specPSYCHO ⛟$1.80$2.941.63x
Galil AR | Connexion (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical$1.80$0.850.47x
Dual Berettas | Elite 1.6 (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specMalina$1.80$0.530.29x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 85.67%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
2 Nov, 21:40 UTC$1.8085.67%50
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed1 2.0%3 2.0%blue 6.0%mil spec 24.0%Rare 6.0%#4b69ff 18.0%violet 4.0%restricted 10.0%#8847ff 14.0%Mil Spec 2.0%Mythical 2.0%milspec 2.0%Uncommon 2.0%#87c7ff 2.0%industrial 4.0%best hit —