Mysterious

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

Price

$73.40

Advertised RTP

86.53%

EV $63.51 from 25 items

Observed RTP, 30d

91.47%

224 openings, odds method

Variance

0.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

20.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

72.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

16 openings · below min

7 days

92.69%±13.77171 openings

30 days

91.47%±12.04224 openings

since tracking started

91.47%±12.04224 openings

78.5%125.0%171.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	16	125.62%±45.0	—	odds
7d	171	92.69%±13.8	+0.9σ	odds
30d	224	91.47%±12.0	+0.8σ	odds
All	224	91.47%±12.0	+0.8σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values25 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 224 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$339	21.4%	9	9.0	1.00×
MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 25	$155	9.7%	16	9.0	1.79×
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 25	$137	8.6%	9	9.0	1.00×
FAMAS \| Prime Conspiracy (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 25	$97.25	6.1%	4	9.0	0.45×
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested)weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 25	$83.93	5.3%	11	9.0	1.23×
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 25	$75.43	4.8%	9	9.0	1.00×
M4A4 \| Red DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$74.61	4.7%	10	9.0	1.12×
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 25	$72.14	4.5%	10	9.0	1.12×
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 25	$58.29	3.7%	8	9.0	0.89×
MAC-10 \| Stalker (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 25	$57.26	3.6%	11	9.0	1.23×
Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$52.42	3.3%	9	9.0	1.00×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 25	$51.18	3.2%	4	9.0	0.45×
Galil AR \| CAUTION! (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$50.93	3.2%	10	9.0	1.12×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 25	$50.15	3.2%	10	9.0	1.12×
M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$42.16	2.7%	10	9.0	1.12×
SCAR-20 \| Emerald (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$35.89	2.3%	7	9.0	0.78×
P250 \| Mehndi (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$33.89	2.1%	8	9.0	0.89×
AWP \| Corticera (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 25	$24.34	1.5%	10	9.0	1.12×
AUG \| Sand Storm (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 25	$23.28	1.5%	11	9.0	1.23×
SG 553 \| Colony IV (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$22.18	1.4%	6	9.0	0.67×
MAG-7 \| Chainmail (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 25	$16.52	1.0%	8	9.0	0.89×
G3SG1 \| Demeter (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 25	$16.41	1.0%	14	9.0	1.56×
MP7 \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$13.41	0.8%	4	9.0	0.45×
MP9 \| Arctic Tri-Tone (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 25	$3.94	0.2%	9	9.0	1.00×
P2000 \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 25	$0.92	0.1%	7	9.0	0.78×

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from g4skins:feed/cases/182, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Factory New)weapon · covert$73.40$1552.11x1h

Galil AR | CAUTION! (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restrictedtwitch.tv/kosior_777$73.40$50.930.69x1h

Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$73.40$72.140.98x10h

M4A1-S | Bright Water (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$73.40$42.160.57x10h

MAG-7 | Chainmail (Factory New)weapon · industrialKURI$73.40$16.520.23x10h

Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$73.40$72.140.98x12h

P250 | Mehndi (Factory New)weapon · classified$73.40$33.890.46x12h

Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Factory New)weapon · classified$73.40$3394.62x12h

MAG-7 | Chainmail (Factory New)weapon · industrialku$73.40$16.520.23x12h

G3SG1 | Demeter (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$73.40$16.410.22x14h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.53%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:40 UTC	$73.40	86.53%	25

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 16.0%covert 28.0%red 4.0%violet 8.0%#eb4b4b 4.0%restricted 20.0%#d32ce6 4.0%industrial 4.0%mil spec 4.0%Mythical 4.0%#8847ff 4.0%best hit —