Mil-Spec
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$0.40
Advertised RTP
88.96%
EV $0.36 from 56 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.35%
247K openings, odds method
Variance
6.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
50.2%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
66.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 88.96% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (89.34% – 91.36%, 246,966 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values56 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 247K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/19, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.96%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $0.40 | 88.96% | 56 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed1 0.9%mil spec 32.0%#4b69ff 62.4%Rare 0.7%blue 3.9%milspec 0.0%best hit $211 (526.6x)