Smart move

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

Price

$14.60

Advertised RTP

86.47%

EV $12.63 from 25 items

Observed RTP, 30d

84.16%

1,351 openings, odds method

Variance

0.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

24.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

68.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

84.62%±8.75274 openings

7 days

85.16%±4.091,154 openings

30 days

84.16%±3.771,351 openings

since tracking started

84.16%±3.771,351 openings

75.0%84.5%94.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	274	84.62%±8.75	−1.0σ	odds
7d	1,154	85.16%±4.09	−0.9σ	odds
30d	1,351	84.16%±3.77	−1.4σ	odds
All	1,351	84.16%±3.77	−1.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values25 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,351 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Glock-18 \| Night (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 25	$52.84	16.7%	58	54.0	1.07×
MP7 \| Full Stop (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 25	$31.61	10.0%	61	54.0	1.13×
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$29.79	9.4%	47	54.0	0.87×
M4A1-S \| Moss Quartz (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 25	$19.10	6.1%	49	54.0	0.91×
AK-47 \| Cartel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$17.36	5.5%	46	54.0	0.85×
Nova \| Tempest (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 25	$16.96	5.4%	41	54.0	0.76×
AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$15.19	4.8%	57	54.0	1.05×
CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$14.84	4.7%	51	54.0	0.94×
AUG \| Fleet Flock (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 25	$13.75	4.4%	51	54.0	0.94×
MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$13.11	4.2%	55	54.0	1.02×
'Blueberries' Buckshot \| NSWC SEALagent · violet	1 in 25	$12.07	3.8%	63	54.0	1.17×
MP9 \| Rose Iron (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$9.43	3.0%	58	54.0	1.07×
USP-S \| Royal Blue (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 25	$8.95	2.8%	53	54.0	0.98×
1st Lieutenant Farlow \| SWATagent · pink	1 in 25	$8.26	2.6%	46	54.0	0.85×
Negev \| Power Loader (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 25	$7.60	2.4%	47	54.0	0.87×
AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 25	$7.56	2.4%	57	54.0	1.05×
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Limelight (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$7.15	2.3%	69	54.0	1.28×
FAMAS \| Decommissioned (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 25	$6.39	2.0%	51	54.0	0.94×
AWP \| POP AWP (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 25	$6.33	2.0%	51	54.0	0.94×
M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 25	$4.74	1.5%	59	54.0	1.09×
AUG \| Aristocrat (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 25	$4.54	1.4%	61	54.0	1.13×
AUG \| Amber Fade (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 25	$2.95	0.9%	64	54.0	1.18×
AWP \| PAW (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 25	$2.45	0.8%	68	54.0	1.26×
AK-47 \| Emerald Pinstripe (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 25	$2.22	0.7%	42	54.0	0.78×
Desert Eagle \| Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested)weapon · 1	1 in 25	$0.44	0.1%	46	54.0	0.85×

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from g4skins:feed/cases/202, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

FAMAS | Decommissioned (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$14.60$6.390.44x18m

USP-S | Royal Blue (Field-Tested)weapon · industrialwojda8skins.army$14.60$8.950.61x18m

AWP | POP AWP (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff✪ VeRoN ✪$14.60$6.330.43x19m

AUG | Aristocrat (Factory New)weapon · #8847ffSpizganyBanan$14.60$4.540.31x19m

AUG | Fleet Flock (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6$14.60$13.750.94x19m

'Blueberries' Buckshot | NSWC SEALagent · violet$14.60$12.070.83x19m

MP9 | Rose Iron (Factory New)weapon · restricted$14.60$9.430.65x19m

AK-47 | Cartel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classifieddavids.777CASE.GIFT$14.60$17.361.19x19m

'Blueberries' Buckshot | NSWC SEALagent · violet$14.60$12.070.83x24m

StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Limelight (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$14.60$7.150.49x24m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.47%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 05:19 UTC	$14.60	86.47%	25
2 Nov, 21:40 UTC	$16.40	86.36%	25

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed1 4.0%industrial 12.0%#4b69ff 8.0%restricted 20.0%classified 8.0%blue 4.0%#d32ee6 8.0%violet 4.0%pink 8.0%#8847ff 16.0%mil spec 4.0%Mythical 4.0%best hit —