Nuclear

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

Price

$56.20

Advertised RTP

86.55%

EV $48.64 from 25 items

Observed RTP, 30d

100.79%

849 openings, odds method

Variance

3.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 13

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

80.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

75 openings · below min

7 days

91.24%±13.33680 openings

30 days

100.79%±11.93849 openings

since tracking started

100.79%±11.93849 openings

23.5%68.5%113.5%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 86.55% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (88.87% – 112.72%, 849 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	75	64.20%±40.1	—	odds
7d	680	91.24%±13.3	+0.7σ	odds
30d	849	100.79%±11.9	+2.3σ	odds
All	849	100.79%±11.9	+2.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values25 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 854 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$514	42.2%	50	34.2	1.46×
MAG-7 \| Counter Terrace (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 25	$107	8.8%	28	34.2	0.82×
Dual Berettas \| Emerald (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 25	$97.53	8.0%	28	34.2	0.82×
Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 25	$75.36	6.2%	37	34.2	1.08×
Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 25	$61.13	5.0%	31	34.2	0.91×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 25	$53.96	4.4%	35	34.2	1.02×
P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 25	$48.85	4.0%	39	34.2	1.14×
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 25	$44.92	3.7%	31	34.2	0.91×
Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$44.02	3.6%	37	34.2	1.08×
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 25	$33.59	2.8%	36	34.2	1.05×
CZ75-Auto \| Emerald (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 25	$32.51	2.7%	35	34.2	1.02×
MAC-10 \| Nuclear Garden (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 25	$28.63	2.4%	37	34.2	1.08×
AK-47 \| Green Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 25	$18.93	1.6%	24	34.2	0.70×
MAC-10 \| Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 25	$16.51	1.4%	39	34.2	1.14×
MAC-10 \| Nuclear Garden (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 25	$15.16	1.2%	29	34.2	0.85×
AUG \| Carved Jade (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 25	$12.76	1.0%	43	34.2	1.26×
MP7 \| Powercore (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$5.20	0.4%	33	34.2	0.97×
Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$2.06	0.2%	25	34.2	0.73×
MAC-10 \| Last Dive (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 25	$1.47	0.1%	31	34.2	0.91×
MP9 \| Deadly Poison (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 25	$0.98	0.1%	39	34.2	1.14×
MP9 \| Bioleak (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 25	$0.65	0.1%	43	34.2	1.26×
MP9 \| Deadly Poison (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 25	$0.58	0.0%	27	34.2	0.79×
MP9 \| Deadly Poison (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 25	$0.46	0.0%	31	34.2	0.91×
MP7 \| Motherboard (Factory New)weapon · #87c7ff	1 in 25	$0.31	0.0%	34	34.2	1.00×
G3SG1 \| Green Apple (Field-Tested)weapon · #87c7ff	1 in 25	$0.20	0.0%	32	34.2	0.94×

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from g4skins:feed/cases/203, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedNot_AnoN$56.20$5149.14x2h

Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedMateuszyście$56.20$5149.14x1d

Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedcerolziN$56.20$5149.14x1d

Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$56.20$5149.14x1d

Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedMateuszyście$56.20$5149.14x1d

Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$56.20$5149.14x1d

Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictednatanmarcon556$56.20$5149.14x2d

Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$56.20$5149.14x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MP9 | Deadly Poison (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare$56.20$0.980.02x1h

MP9 | Deadly Poison (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec$56.20$0.580.01x1h

MP9 | Deadly Poison (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specKURI$56.20$0.580.01x1h

Tec-9 | Nuclear Threat (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted$56.20$44.020.78x1h

AK-47 | Green Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue$56.20$18.930.34x1h

MP9 | Deadly Poison (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ffKURI$56.20$0.460.01x1h

P250 | Nuclear Threat (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythicaladamnicho$56.20$48.850.87x1h

AWP | Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert$56.20$53.960.96x1h

MP9 | Deadly Poison (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ffKURI$56.20$0.460.01x1h

MP9 | Bioleak (Factory New)weapon · Rare$56.20$0.650.01x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.55%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:40 UTC	$56.20	86.55%	25

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedrestricted 16.0%#4b69ff 12.0%mil spec 24.0%#8847ff 12.0%covert 12.0%Mythical 4.0%blue 4.0%Rare 8.0%#87c7ff 8.0%best hit $514 (9.14x)