Pinky

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

Price

$26.30

Advertised RTP

86.70%

EV $22.80 from 25 items

Observed RTP, 30d

91.07%

1,217 openings, odds method

Variance

1.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

16.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

80.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

86.67%±13.03244 openings

7 days

90.94%±6.201,077 openings

30 days

91.07%±5.841,217 openings

since tracking started

91.07%±5.841,217 openings

73.0%86.8%100.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	244	86.67%±13.0	−0.0σ	odds
7d	1,077	90.94%±6.20	+1.3σ	odds
30d	1,217	91.07%±5.84	+1.5σ	odds
All	1,217	91.07%±5.84	+1.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values25 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,217 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| BOOM (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$115	20.2%	62	48.7	1.27×
Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$89.35	15.7%	47	48.7	0.97×
AK-47 \| Cartel (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$59.46	10.4%	50	48.7	1.03×
Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$53.88	9.5%	52	48.7	1.07×
M4A1-S \| Guardian (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$26.55	4.7%	41	48.7	0.84×
Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$24.66	4.3%	41	48.7	0.84×
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 25	$23.40	4.1%	42	48.7	0.86×
MAC-10 \| Toybox (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 25	$18.71	3.3%	58	48.7	1.19×
AK-47 \| Cartel (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$17.28	3.0%	54	48.7	1.11×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$15.11	2.7%	56	48.7	1.15×
Galil AR \| Eco (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$15.06	2.6%	57	48.7	1.17×
Nova \| Bloomstick (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$12.53	2.2%	57	48.7	1.17×
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 25	$11.73	2.1%	38	48.7	0.78×
Nova \| Antique (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$10.69	1.9%	56	48.7	1.15×
P250 \| Cartel (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$10.51	1.8%	38	48.7	0.78×
AUG \| Death by Puppy (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$9.82	1.7%	42	48.7	0.86×
MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$8.73	1.5%	48	48.7	0.99×
Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 25	$7.59	1.3%	46	48.7	0.94×
MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$6.74	1.2%	60	48.7	1.23×
Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 25	$6.68	1.2%	42	48.7	0.86×
P90 \| Nostalgia (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 25	$6.33	1.1%	36	48.7	0.74×
MAG-7 \| Justice (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$6.23	1.1%	46	48.7	0.94×
CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$4.81	0.8%	64	48.7	1.31×
AUG \| Death by Puppy (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$4.55	0.8%	41	48.7	0.84×
P90 \| Nostalgia (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$4.38	0.8%	43	48.7	0.88×

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from g4skins:feed/cases/204, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink$26.30$23.400.89x14m

Nova | Antique (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$26.30$10.690.41x14m

AUG | Death by Puppy (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedLuźny Joe skins.army$26.30$4.550.17x14m

Nova | Antique (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$26.30$10.690.41x36m

MAG-7 | Justice (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classifiedUser0 skins.army$26.30$6.230.24x36m

AUG | Death by Puppy (Factory New)weapon · classified$26.30$9.820.37x59m

P250 | Cartel (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$26.30$10.510.40x59m

M4A1-S | Guardian (Well-Worn)weapon · classified$26.30$26.551.01x59m

AUG | Death by Puppy (Factory New)weapon · classifiedtwitch.tv/kosior_777$26.30$9.820.37x59m

M4A4 | Desolate Space (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$26.30$15.110.57x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.70%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:40 UTC	$26.30	86.70%	25

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 80.0%pink 8.0%#d32ee6 8.0%Legendary 4.0%best hit —