Dingy

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

Price

$17.90

Advertised RTP

86.95%

EV $15.56 from 25 items

Observed RTP, 30d

84.91%

1,083 openings, odds method

Variance

1.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

12.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

76.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

85 openings · below min

7 days

85.61%±7.69961 openings

30 days

84.91%±7.241,083 openings

since tracking started

84.91%±7.241,083 openings

48.0%74.5%101.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	85	74.27%±25.8	—	odds
7d	961	85.61%±7.69	−0.3σ	odds
30d	1,083	84.91%±7.24	−0.6σ	odds
All	1,083	84.91%±7.24	−0.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values25 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,083 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A1-S \| Moss Quartz (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 25	$89.99	23.1%	47	43.3	1.08×
AK-47 \| Baroque Purple (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 25	$68.63	17.6%	39	43.3	0.90×
Glock-18 \| Night (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 25	$42.28	10.9%	39	43.3	0.90×
MAG-7 \| Silver (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 25	$31.26	8.0%	41	43.3	0.95×
AK-47 \| Jungle Spray (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 25	$21.35	5.5%	40	43.3	0.92×
AWP \| Sun in Leo (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 25	$20.76	5.3%	43	43.3	0.99×
P250 \| Crimson Kimono (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 25	$16.79	4.3%	45	43.3	1.04×
MAG-7 \| Chainmail (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 25	$16.52	4.2%	45	43.3	1.04×
M4A4 \| Dark Blossom (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 25	$14.48	3.7%	39	43.3	0.90×
P250 \| Crimson Kimono (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #87c7ff	1 in 25	$14.26	3.7%	41	43.3	0.95×
Desert Eagle \| Midnight Storm (Field-Tested)weapon · Industrial Grade	1 in 25	$13.84	3.6%	49	43.3	1.13×
M4A1-S \| Boreal Forest (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 25	$10.60	2.7%	37	43.3	0.85×
AK-47 \| Jungle Spray (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 25	$7.35	1.9%	33	43.3	0.76×
AK-47 \| Jungle Spray (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial	1 in 25	$7.22	1.9%	39	43.3	0.90×
FAMAS \| Cyanospatter (Factory New)weapon · #87c7ff	1 in 25	$6.63	1.7%	44	43.3	1.02×
AUG \| Condemned (Factory New)weapon · #87c7ff	1 in 25	$3.56	0.9%	47	43.3	1.08×
MP7 \| Gunsmoke (Field-Tested)weapon · #87c7ff	1 in 25	$1.56	0.4%	52	43.3	1.20×
AWP \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 25	$0.35	0.1%	63	43.3	1.45×
MP7 \| Motherboard (Field-Tested)weapon · #87c7ff	1 in 25	$0.31	0.1%	40	43.3	0.92×
MP7 \| Motherboard (Factory New)weapon · #87c7ff	1 in 25	$0.31	0.1%	45	43.3	1.04×
Galil AR \| Cold Fusion (Minimal Wear)weapon · #87c7ff	1 in 25	$0.25	0.1%	43	43.3	0.99×
AWP \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 25	$0.21	0.1%	45	43.3	1.04×
M4A1-S \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 25	$0.20	0.1%	38	43.3	0.88×
AWP \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 25	$0.19	0.0%	44	43.3	1.02×
Nova \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 25	$0.19	0.0%	45	43.3	1.04×

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from g4skins:feed/cases/206, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MP7 | Motherboard (Factory New)weapon · #87c7ff$17.90$0.310.02x6m

AK-47 | Jungle Spray (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial$17.90$21.351.19x6m

M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial$17.90$0.200.01x6m

Glock-18 | Night (Factory New)weapon · industrialVenecek$17.90$42.282.36x6m

AK-47 | Jungle Spray (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrialadamnicho$17.90$21.351.19x1h

P250 | Crimson Kimono (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #87c7ffszeligator1$17.90$14.260.80x1h

M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Factory New)weapon · industrialadamnicho$17.90$10.600.59x1h

AWP | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrialszeligator1$17.90$0.350.02x1h

MP7 | Gunsmoke (Field-Tested)weapon · #87c7ff$17.90$1.560.09x2h

M4A1-S | Moss Quartz (Factory New)weapon · industrialWet Michael$17.90$89.995.03x2h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.95%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:40 UTC	$17.90	86.95%	25

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedindustrial 64.0%#87c7ff 28.0%Industrial Grade 4.0%Uncommon 4.0%best hit —