Ache
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$4.50
Advertised RTP
88.92%
EV $4.00 from 62 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.54%
8,886 openings, odds method
Variance
2.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
13.1%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
71.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values62 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8,908 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/207, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.92%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $4.50 | 88.92% | 62 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed1 2.6%classified 9.6%Mythical 8.7%restricted 14.8%covert 0.3%gold 0.1%Classified 0.2%pink 0.7%blue 0.6%Rare 2.7%mil spec 12.5%violet 3.0%#4b69ff 22.8%light blue 6.3%#87c7ff 15.1%best hit —