Bucket of tar
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$3.30
Advertised RTP
89.05%
EV $2.94 from 58 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.15%
11.3K openings, odds method
Variance
5.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 12
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
73.1%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values58 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11.3K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/209, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.05%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $3.30 | 89.05% | 58 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedmil spec 22.0%covert 0.1%#4b69ff 37.8%restricted 8.3%industrial 5.7%classified 1.9%Legendary 1.2%#87c7ff 1.6%light blue 1.9%Mil Spec 1.3%Mythical 1.4%pink 1.6%Rare 4.3%#8847ff 1.9%blue 9.0%best hit $237 (71.89x)