Restricted

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

Price

$2.40

Advertised RTP

88.98%

EV $2.14 from 48 items

Observed RTP, 30d

88.69%

46.9K openings, odds method

Variance

10.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

19.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

72.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

86.28%±7.936,621 openings

7 days

88.98%±3.2739K openings

30 days

88.69%±2.9846.9K openings

since tracking started

88.69%±2.9846.9K openings

77.5%86.3%95.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	6,621	86.28%±7.93	−0.7σ	odds
7d	39K	88.98%±3.27	−0.0σ	odds
30d	46.9K	88.69%±2.98	−0.2σ	odds
All	46.9K	88.69%±2.98	−0.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values48 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 46.9K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 100,000	$2,022	0.9%	0	0.5	—
Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 100,000	$808	0.4%	0	0.5	—
Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 弐 (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 100,000	$657	0.3%	1	0.5	—
M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 100,000	$617	0.3%	0	0.5	—
M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 8,333	$73.06	0.4%	5	5.6	0.89×
M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 4,545	$40.21	0.4%	16	10.3	1.55×
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 3,226	$28.02	0.4%	10	14.5	0.69×
AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 3,226	$27.83	0.4%	18	14.5	1.24×
USP-S \| Overgrowth (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 485	$22.21	2.1%	97	96.7	1.00×
FAMAS \| Styx (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 481	$22.02	2.1%	112	97.6	1.15×
AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 358	$16.40	2.1%	161	130.9	1.23×
Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 287	$13.13	2.1%	156	163.3	0.96×
Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 284	$12.98	2.1%	149	165.2	0.90×
M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 281	$12.85	2.1%	176	167.1	1.05×
M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 227	$10.38	2.1%	191	206.5	0.92×
USP-S \| Guardian (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 100	$8.29	3.9%	494	471.2	1.05×
USP-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 88	$7.35	3.9%	563	531.2	1.06×
M4A1-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 59	$4.94	3.9%	800	790.3	1.01×
USP-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$4.18	3.9%	935	933.9	1.00×
M4A1-S \| Flashback (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 49	$4.06	3.9%	997	961.6	1.04×
M4A4 \| Griffin (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 87	$3.62	2.0%	550	540.2	1.02×
CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 86	$3.58	2.0%	531	546.3	0.97×
M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 84	$3.51	2.0%	530	557.1	0.95×
USP-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 82	$3.41	2.0%	570	573.5	0.99×
AWP \| Worm God (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 77	$3.19	2.0%	595	612.9	0.97×
Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 72	$2.98	2.0%	649	656.1	0.99×
CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 68	$2.84	2.0%	646	688.5	0.94×
P250 \| Supernova (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 65	$2.72	2.0%	721	719.0	1.00×
AWP \| Worm God (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 62	$2.60	2.0%	759	752.3	1.01×
AWP \| Phobos (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 62	$2.57	2.0%	807	760.7	1.06×
CZ75-Auto \| Pole Position (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 58	$2.42	2.0%	800	808.1	0.99×
AK-47 \| Emerald Pinstripe (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 58	$2.40	2.0%	790	814.7	0.97×
Glock-18 \| Weasel (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 39	$1.98	2.4%	1,222	1214.5	1.01×
P90 \| Chopper (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 36	$1.86	2.4%	1,286	1292.9	0.99×
CZ75-Auto \| Pole Position (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 35	$1.80	2.4%	1,304	1336.1	0.98×
Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 35	$1.80	2.4%	1,309	1336.1	0.98×
P90 \| Chopper (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 32	$1.66	2.4%	1,434	1448.7	0.99×
P250 \| Wingshot (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 32	$1.65	2.4%	1,459	1457.6	1.00×
SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 32	$1.63	2.4%	1,492	1475.5	1.01×
Glock-18 \| Weasel (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 30	$1.55	2.4%	1,522	1551.5	0.98×
AWP \| Pit Viper (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 30	$1.55	2.4%	1,623	1551.5	1.05×
CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 27	$1.39	2.4%	1,745	1730.3	1.01×
UMP-45 \| Exposure (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 27	$1.38	2.4%	1,721	1743.0	0.99×
AWP \| Pit Viper (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 21	$1.10	2.4%	2,164	2186.5	0.99×
Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 20	$1.05	2.4%	2,300	2290.7	1.00×
MAG-7 \| SWAG-7 (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 12	$0.64	2.4%	3,737	3758.2	0.99×
M4A1-S \| Nitro (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 11	$0.56	2.4%	4,365	4295.0	1.02×
UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	11.7%	$0.47	2.6%	5,418	5470.2	0.99×

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from g4skins:feed/cases/21, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Desert Eagle | Sunset Storm 弐 (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedmatis ♛$2.40$657273.9x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P90 | Chopper (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$2.40$1.860.78x1m

UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ffFcAdixo_skins.army$2.40$0.470.20x1m

CZ75-Auto | Pole Position (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$2.40$1.800.75x2m

MAG-7 | SWAG-7 (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedDziadUUUU$2.40$0.640.27x2m

MAG-7 | SWAG-7 (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedReykerDictator ツ$2.40$0.640.27x2m

M4A1-S | Nitro (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedMoszyl$2.40$0.560.23x2m

Glock-18 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear)weapon · MythicalReykerDictator ツ$2.40$1.800.75x2m

CZ75-Auto | Pole Position (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedMoszyl$2.40$1.800.75x2m

SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ffReykerDictator ツ$2.40$1.630.68x2m

AWP | Worm God (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ffMoszyl$2.40$3.191.33x2m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.98%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:40 UTC	$2.40	88.98%	48

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedrestricted 45.6%rare 0.0%violet 5.0%Mythical 13.4%#8847ff 36.1%best hit $657 (273.9x)