Chase
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$50.00
Advertised RTP
88.89%
EV $44.45 from 39 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.56%
750 openings, odds method
Variance
2.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 10
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
62.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values39 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 753 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/210, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.89%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 21:11 UTC | $50.00 | 88.89% | 39 |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $50.00 | 88.83% | 39 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 18.8%gold 0.2%restricted 1.2%base 0.2%#8847ff 0.4%classified 5.9%#d32ee6 1.4%pink 0.7%mil spec 3.0%#4b69ff 64.7%rare 3.5%best hit $887 (17.74x)