50% Cyrex

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

Price

$4.00

Advertised RTP

83.20%

EV $3.33 from 10 items

Observed RTP, 30d

82.72%

20.3K openings, odds method

Variance

2.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

15.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

85.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

83.38%±5.163,004 openings

7 days

82.25%±2.1716.9K openings

30 days

82.72%±1.9820.3K openings

since tracking started

82.72%±1.9820.3K openings

77.5%83.3%89.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	3,004	83.38%±5.16	+0.1σ	odds
7d	16.9K	82.25%±2.17	−0.9σ	odds
30d	20.3K	82.72%±1.98	−0.5σ	odds
All	20.3K	82.72%±1.98	−0.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 20.4K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
USP-S \| Cyrex (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$33.99	30.6%	604	611.6	0.99×
USP-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 14	$5.98	12.6%	1,431	1427.1	1.00×
USP-S \| Forest Leaves (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 20	$4.59	6.9%	992	1019.4	0.97×
USP-S \| Cyrex (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	11.0%	$3.99	13.2%	2,248	2242.6	1.00×
USP-S \| Cyrex (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	14.0%	$3.94	16.6%	2,807	2854.2	0.98×
USP-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	15.0%	$3.88	17.5%	3,091	3058.0	1.01×
USP-S \| Forest Leaves (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #87c7ff	1 in 14	$0.31	0.7%	1,356	1427.1	0.95×
USP-S \| Forest Leaves (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	10.0%	$0.26	0.8%	2,073	2038.7	1.02×
USP-S \| Forest Leaves (Well-Worn)weapon · #87c7ff	12.0%	$0.20	0.7%	2,545	2446.4	1.04×
USP-S \| Forest Leaves (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	16.0%	$0.10	0.5%	3,240	3261.9	0.99×

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from g4skins:feed/cases/24, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

USP-S | Forest Leaves (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial$4.00$0.100.03x2m

USP-S | Cyrex (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted$4.00$3.991.00x2m

USP-S | Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$4.00$3.880.97x2m

USP-S | Forest Leaves (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrialMIOD MALINA$4.00$0.260.07x2m

USP-S | Forest Leaves (Well-Worn)weapon · #87c7ff$4.00$0.200.05x10m

USP-S | Forest Leaves (Factory New)weapon · industrialMAHONIOWY_TWARDEUSZ$4.00$4.591.15x10m

USP-S | Forest Leaves (Factory New)weapon · industrialkrycha$4.00$4.591.15x10m

USP-S | Forest Leaves (Well-Worn)weapon · #87c7ffzamil$4.00$0.200.05x10m

USP-S | Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$4.00$5.981.50x10m

USP-S | Cyrex (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ffSensei Wu skins.army$4.00$3.940.99x10m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.20%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:40 UTC	$4.00	83.20%	10

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedrestricted 36.0%industrial 31.0%#8847ff 14.0%#87c7ff 19.0%best hit —