50% Water Elemental
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$13.40
Advertised RTP
84.32%
EV $11.30 from 14 items
Observed RTP, 30d
82.36%
2,745 openings, odds method
Variance
0.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
49.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
50.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,745 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/25, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 84.32%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $13.40 | 84.32% | 14 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 8.2%Legendary 0.8%#d32ee6 3.5%pink 37.5%Rare 2.5%mil spec 42.5%#4b69ff 5.0%best hit —