50% Mecha Industries
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$70.20
Advertised RTP
84.27%
EV $59.15 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
81.83%
396 openings, odds method
Variance
0.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
25.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
50.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 396 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $186 | 3.1% | 3 | 4.0 | 0.76× |
| M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Well-Worn)weapon · red | 1 in 20 | $123 | 10.4% | 19 | 19.8 | 0.96× |
| M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient | 1 in 25 | $121 | 8.2% | 19 | 15.8 | 1.20× |
| M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 15.0% | $120 | 30.4% | 59 | 59.4 | 0.99× |
| M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red | 25.0% | $113 | 47.8% | 94 | 99.0 | 0.95× |
| M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 1 in 1,000 | $15.75 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon | 1 in 111 | $0.28 | 0.0% | 3 | 3.6 | 0.84× |
| M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Industrial Grade | 22.5% | $0.20 | 0.1% | 86 | 89.1 | 0.97× |
| M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Well-Worn)weapon · Industrial Grade | 1 in 25 | $0.19 | 0.0% | 25 | 15.8 | 1.58× |
| M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial | 22.5% | $0.15 | 0.1% | 88 | 89.1 | 0.99× |
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/26, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 84.27%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 18:07 UTC | $70.20 | 84.27% | 10 |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $85.90 | 84.23% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 16.0%red 30.0%Ancient 4.0%industrial 22.6%Uncommon 0.9%Industrial Grade 26.5%best hit —