Fire&Water
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$65.20
Advertised RTP
86.62%
EV $56.47 from 20 items
Observed RTP, 30d
81.20%
422 openings, odds method
Variance
1.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
15.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 430 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/261, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.62%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $65.20 | 86.62% | 20 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 20.0%#4b69ff 10.0%classified 15.0%restricted 35.0%industrial 5.0%#d32ce6 5.0%mil spec 5.0%#8847ff 5.0%best hit —