Furious

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

Price
$44.70
Advertised RTP
86.76%
EV $38.78 from 20 items
Observed RTP, 30d
80.01%
352 openings, odds method
Variance
2.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
72 openings · below min
7 days
72.59%±16.72298 openings
30 days
80.01%±15.38352 openings
since tracking started
80.01%±15.38352 openings
22.0%59.0%96.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h7256.84%±34.0—odds
7d29872.59%±16.7−1.7σodds
30d35280.01%±15.4−0.9σodds
All35280.01%±15.4−0.9σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 358 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 20$23530.3%1417.90.78×
M4A1-S | Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 20$22829.3%1817.91.01×
AK-47 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 20$51.216.6%1917.91.06×
AK-47 | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 20$45.555.9%817.90.45×
AUG | Bengal Tiger (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 20$41.655.4%1717.90.95×
CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 20$28.483.7%2317.91.28×
USP-S | Caiman (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 20$26.763.5%1017.90.56×
FAMAS | Afterimage (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee61 in 20$24.163.1%1917.91.06×
Dual Berettas | Demolition (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 20$18.792.4%2417.91.34×
Dual Berettas | Demolition (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 20$15.812.0%1717.90.95×
AUG | Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 20$11.151.4%1417.90.78×
Desert Eagle | Heirloom (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff1 in 20$10.401.3%2317.91.28×
Desert Eagle | Heirloom (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 20$9.281.2%1317.90.73×
CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 20$6.010.8%1217.90.67×
M4A1-S | Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 20$5.700.7%2017.91.12×
AWP | Mortis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary1 in 20$5.530.7%2717.91.51×
AWP | Mortis (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 20$4.150.5%2017.91.12×
Five-SeveN | Buddy (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 20$4.110.5%1917.91.06×
G3SG1 | Scavenger (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 20$2.670.3%2617.91.45×
Five-SeveN | Buddy (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 20$1.410.2%1517.90.84×
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from g4skins:feed/cases/262, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.76%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
2 Nov, 21:40 UTC$44.7086.76%20
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 20.0%classified 20.0%mil spec 15.0%#d32ee6 5.0%restricted 25.0%#8847ff 5.0%violet 5.0%Legendary 5.0%best hit —