CheoMeo

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

Price

$4.70

Advertised RTP

86.67%

EV $4.07 from 20 items

Observed RTP, 30d

84.68%

7,891 openings, odds method

Variance

1.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

15.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

65.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

83.38%±6.241,115 openings

7 days

84.17%±2.546,730 openings

30 days

84.68%±2.357,891 openings

since tracking started

84.68%±2.357,891 openings

76.5%83.5%90.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,115	83.38%±6.24	−1.0σ	odds
7d	6,730	84.17%±2.54	−1.9σ	odds
30d	7,891	84.68%±2.35	−1.7σ	odds
All	7,891	84.68%±2.35	−1.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,891 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$19.90	24.4%	367	394.5	0.93×
MP9 \| Airlock (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 20	$13.33	16.4%	378	394.5	0.96×
AWP \| Acheron (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 20	$7.94	9.7%	383	394.5	0.97×
AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 20	$7.11	8.7%	418	394.5	1.06×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 20	$6.71	8.2%	398	394.5	1.01×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$6.25	7.7%	378	394.5	0.96×
M4A1-S \| Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 20	$5.74	7.0%	394	394.5	1.00×
P250 \| Cyber Shell (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 20	$3.95	4.8%	411	394.5	1.04×
AUG \| Aristocrat (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$1.73	2.1%	374	394.5	0.95×
P90 \| Chopper (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 20	$1.53	1.9%	408	394.5	1.03×
AUG \| Aristocrat (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$1.51	1.9%	384	394.5	0.97×
Glock-18 \| Ironwork (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 20	$1.14	1.4%	374	394.5	0.95×
USP-S \| Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 20	$0.79	1.0%	374	394.5	0.95×
M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 20	$0.78	1.0%	411	394.5	1.04×
M4A4 \| Converter (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 20	$0.68	0.8%	391	394.5	0.99×
MP9 \| Bioleak (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 20	$0.65	0.8%	426	394.5	1.08×
USP-S \| Check Engine (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 20	$0.59	0.7%	380	394.5	0.96×
SCAR-20 \| Assault (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 20	$0.51	0.6%	408	394.5	1.03×
SSG 08 \| Abyss (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 20	$0.35	0.4%	418	394.5	1.06×
M4A1-S \| VariCamo (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 20	$0.28	0.3%	416	394.5	1.05×

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from g4skins:feed/cases/265, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

USP-S | Check Engine (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specbiala mewa SKINS$4.70$0.590.13x5s

MP9 | Airlock (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6alfredo di stefano$4.70$13.332.84x5s

AWP | Acheron (Factory New)weapon · Rare$4.70$7.941.69x1m

M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff$4.70$0.780.17x1m

Glock-18 | Ironwork (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffksiążęnieporządek$4.70$1.140.24x1m

P90 | Chopper (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff$4.70$1.530.33x2m

M4A1-S | VariCamo (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare$4.70$0.280.06x2m

AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classifiedksiążęnieporządek$4.70$6.251.33x2m

P250 | Cyber Shell (Factory New)weapon · #8847ffAjek$4.70$3.950.84x4m

SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Field-Tested)weapon · classified𝕂𝕒𝕞𝕦𝕣 skins.army$4.70$19.904.23x4m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.67%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:40 UTC	$4.70	86.67%	20

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 10.0%#d32ee6 10.0%Rare 25.0%rare 5.0%mil spec 10.0%#8847ff 15.0%restricted 10.0%#4b69ff 10.0%blue 5.0%best hit —