Sweet16

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

Price

$83.70

Advertised RTP

86.90%

EV $72.74 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

75.42%

510 openings, odds method

Variance

3.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

12.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

75.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

84.48%±30.38124 openings

7 days

78.04%±15.62469 openings

30 days

75.42%±14.98510 openings

since tracking started

75.42%±14.98510 openings

53.5%84.5%115.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	124	84.48%±30.4	−0.2σ	odds
7d	469	78.04%±15.6	−1.1σ	odds
30d	510	75.42%±15.0	−1.5σ	odds
All	510	75.42%±15.0	−1.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 510 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 16	$549	47.1%	26	31.9	0.82×
SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 16	$310	26.6%	28	31.9	0.88×
Five-SeveN \| Berries And Cherries (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 16	$106	9.1%	32	31.9	1.00×
AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 16	$90.87	7.8%	23	31.9	0.72×
AWP \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 16	$26.28	2.3%	33	31.9	1.04×
MAC-10 \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 16	$21.44	1.8%	37	31.9	1.16×
P250 \| Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 16	$16.93	1.5%	41	31.9	1.29×
USP-S \| Blood Tiger (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 16	$16.62	1.4%	36	31.9	1.13×
1st Lieutenant Farlow \| SWATagent · pink	1 in 16	$11.26	1.0%	28	31.9	0.88×
P90 \| Trigon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 16	$10.36	0.9%	32	31.9	1.00×
Negev \| Power Loader (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 16	$1.77	0.2%	30	31.9	0.94×
Sawed-Off \| Apocalypto (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 16	$1.61	0.1%	30	31.9	0.94×
Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 16	$0.85	0.1%	33	31.9	1.04×
MP7 \| Armor Core (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 16	$0.53	0.0%	34	31.9	1.07×
Tec-9 \| Brother (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 16	$0.45	0.0%	34	31.9	1.07×
Glock-18 \| High Beam (Factory New)weapon · light blue	1 in 16	$0.19	0.0%	33	31.9	1.04×

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from g4skins:feed/cases/266, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New)weapon · covertZazazaza❤️❤ skins.army$83.70$5496.56x1h

M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New)weapon · covert$83.70$5496.56x1h

M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New)weapon · covert$83.70$5496.56x2h

M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New)weapon · covert$83.70$5496.56x14h

M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New)weapon · covert$83.70$5496.56x16h

M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New)weapon · covertsaju$83.70$5496.56x17h

M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New)weapon · covert$83.70$5496.56x22h

M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New)weapon · covertsaju$83.70$5496.56x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MP7 | Armor Core (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$83.70$0.530.01x13m

Glock-18 | High Beam (Factory New)weapon · light bluePatrickStar$83.70$0.190.00x13m

MP7 | Armor Core (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$83.70$0.530.01x28m

Five-SeveN | Berries And Cherries (Factory New)weapon · restricted$83.70$1061.27x28m

P250 | Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffmrouZ$83.70$16.930.20x28m

Five-SeveN | Berries And Cherries (Factory New)weapon · restricted$83.70$1061.27x28m

Glock-18 | High Beam (Factory New)weapon · light blue$83.70$0.190.00x28m

1st Lieutenant Farlow | SWATagent · pinkmrouZ$83.70$11.260.13x28m

Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical$83.70$1.610.02x46m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.90%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:40 UTC	$83.70	86.90%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 18.8%restricted 6.3%Legendary 6.3%mil spec 12.5%#4b69ff 6.3%Rare 6.3%pink 6.3%classified 6.3%violet 12.5%Mythical 12.5%light blue 6.3%best hit $549 (6.56x)