50% Frontside Misty
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$10.60
Advertised RTP
83.94%
EV $8.90 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
81.16%
4,231 openings, odds method
Variance
0.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
50.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
50.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,235 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 500 | $117 | 2.6% | 6 | 8.5 | 0.71× |
| AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 200 | $30.17 | 1.7% | 26 | 21.2 | 1.23× |
| AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 50 | $17.70 | 4.0% | 78 | 84.7 | 0.92× |
| AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Well-Worn)weapon · classified | 14.0% | $17.15 | 27.0% | 570 | 592.9 | 0.96× |
| AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified | 33.3% | $16.93 | 63.4% | 1,377 | 1410.3 | 0.98× |
| AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 1 in 10,000 | $6.83 | 0.0% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon | 23.5% | $0.28 | 0.7% | 990 | 995.2 | 0.99× |
| AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial | 1 in 67 | $0.28 | 0.0% | 78 | 63.3 | 1.23× |
| AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial | 1 in 67 | $0.23 | 0.0% | 59 | 63.3 | 0.93× |
| AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #87c7ff | 23.5% | $0.19 | 0.5% | 1,050 | 995.2 | 1.06× |
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/27, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.94%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 11:42 UTC | $10.60 | 83.94% | 10 |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $11.10 | 83.96% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 50.0%industrial 3.0%Uncommon 23.5%#87c7ff 23.5%best hit —