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A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$5.00
Advertised RTP
88.89%
EV $4.44 from 22 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.13%
11.7K openings, odds method
Variance
4.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 18
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
67.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values22 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11.8K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/272, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.89%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov, 19:45 UTC | $5.00 | 88.89% | 22 |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $5.00 | 89.12% | 22 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.0%gold 0.2%red 0.2%classified 4.5%restricted 2.1%pink 0.9%#d32ee6 2.9%#d32ce6 12.4%Legendary 3.9%#8847ff 4.6%#4b69ff 67.3%best hit —