Gadget
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$4.50
Advertised RTP
88.91%
EV $4.00 from 19 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.35%
8,128 openings, odds method
Variance
4.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 11
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
61.2%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8,137 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/273, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov, 19:45 UTC | $4.50 | 88.91% | 19 |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $4.50 | 88.83% | 20 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 6.1%covert 0.5%#eb4b4b 0.3%restricted 8.8%#d32ee6 1.4%mil spec 4.0%industrial 2.2%Mythical 2.4%Legendary 8.5%#8847ff 4.7%consumer 61.2%best hit —