10% Speciality
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$14.10
Advertised RTP
84.36%
EV $11.89 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.28%
1,149 openings, odds method
Variance
15.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 50
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
94.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,149 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USP-S | Whiteout (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 100 | $414 | 34.8% | 11 | 11.5 | 0.96× |
| MP5-SD | Oxide Oasis (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6 | 1 in 100 | $231 | 19.4% | 18 | 11.5 | 1.57× |
| SSG 08 | Death Strike (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 100 | $205 | 17.2% | 13 | 11.5 | 1.13× |
| Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 100 | $199 | 16.8% | 5 | 11.5 | 0.44× |
| USP-S | Orange Anolis (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 100 | $66.15 | 5.6% | 12 | 11.5 | 1.04× |
| P250 | Digital Architect (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff | 1 in 100 | $42.20 | 3.5% | 10 | 11.5 | 0.87× |
| StatTrak™ AWP | Atheris (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff | 1 in 25 | $7.29 | 2.5% | 52 | 46.0 | 1.13× |
| MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 90.0% | $0.04 | 0.3% | 1,028 | 1034.1 | 0.99× |
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/276, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 84.36%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 18:07 UTC | $14.10 | 84.36% | 8 |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $17.40 | 84.38% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 3.0%#d32ee6 1.0%restricted 1.0%#8847ff 5.0%consumer 90.0%best hit $543 (31.23x)