7.77% lucky

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

Price

$20.20

Advertised RTP

84.22%

EV $17.01 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

104.27%

853 openings, odds method

Variance

11.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 39

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

92.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

129.61%±46.57201 openings

7 days

108.20%±24.83714 openings

30 days

104.27%±22.89853 openings

since tracking started

104.27%±22.89853 openings

80.5%128.8%177.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	201	129.61%±46.6	+1.9σ	odds
7d	714	108.20%±24.8	+1.9σ	odds
30d	853	104.27%±22.9	+1.7σ	odds
All	853	104.27%±22.9	+1.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 853 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Five-SeveN \| Neon Kimono (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 193	$551	16.8%	7	4.4	1.58×
P90 \| Astral Jörmungandr (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 193	$351	10.7%	5	4.4	1.13×
P90 \| Astral Jörmungandr (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 193	$335	10.2%	6	4.4	1.36×
Glock-18 \| Synth Leaf (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 193	$306	9.3%	4	4.4	0.91×
USP-S \| Target Acquired (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 193	$261	7.9%	6	4.4	1.36×
USP-S \| Target Acquired (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 193	$230	7.0%	9	4.4	2.04×
Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 193	$195	5.9%	5	4.4	1.13×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 193	$194	5.9%	4	4.4	0.91×
M4A4 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 193	$192	5.9%	3	4.4	0.68×
Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 193	$154	4.7%	1	4.4	0.23×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 193	$148	4.5%	11	4.4	2.49×
SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 193	$143	4.3%	3	4.4	0.68×
M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 193	$96.55	2.9%	8	4.4	1.81×
AWP \| Snake Camo (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 193	$77.63	2.4%	3	4.4	0.68×
P250 \| Undertow (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 193	$42.80	1.3%	6	4.4	1.36×
Tec-9 \| Groundwater (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	92.2%	$0.04	0.2%	772	786.7	0.98×

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from g4skins:feed/cases/278, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Five-SeveN | Neon Kimono (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedPatrickStar$20.20$55127.30x13h

Five-SeveN | Neon Kimono (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$20.20$55127.30x15h

Five-SeveN | Neon Kimono (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedLechu$20.20$55127.30x15h

Five-SeveN | Neon Kimono (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$20.20$55127.30x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$20.20$0.040.00x1h

USP-S | Target Acquired (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedGUTEK POGROMCA PROSTYTUTEK$20.20$23011.38x1h

Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$20.20$0.040.00x1h

Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerKICK/YT: Prz3mqu$20.20$0.040.00x1h

Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerGUTEK POGROMCA PROSTYTUTEK$20.20$0.040.00x1h

Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$20.20$0.040.00x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 84.22%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
5 Nov, 18:07 UTC	$20.20	84.22%	16
2 Nov, 21:50 UTC	$23.80	84.42%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedrestricted 2.1%classified 3.1%covert 2.1%mil spec 0.5%consumer 92.2%best hit $551 (27.30x)