4.20% greeny

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

Price

$2.40

Advertised RTP

84.25%

EV $2.02 from 7 items

Observed RTP, 30d

79.76%

18.3K openings, odds method

Variance

141.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 75

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

95.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

86.90%±50.322,139 openings

7 days

79.73%±19.1514.3K openings

30 days

79.76%±16.4618.3K openings

since tracking started

79.76%±16.4618.3K openings

36.0%87.0%138.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	2,139	86.90%±50.3	+0.1σ	odds
7d	14.3K	79.73%±19.1	−0.6σ	odds
30d	18.3K	79.76%±16.5	−0.7σ	odds
All	18.3K	79.76%±16.5	−0.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 18.3K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 100,000	$8,416	4.2%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 694	$111	7.9%	33	26.4	1.25×
Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 233	$79.41	16.9%	79	78.9	1.00×
Galil AR \| Eco (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 133	$76.27	28.4%	118	138.0	0.86×
AK-47 \| Green Laminate (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 97	$37.27	19.1%	202	189.9	1.06×
AK-47 \| Green Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 54	$16.03	14.6%	322	337.2	0.95×
G3SG1 \| Green Apple (Factory New)weapon · industrial	95.8%	$0.19	9.0%	17,593	17576.4	1.00×

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from g4skins:feed/cases/279, 12 Nov, 00:34 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AWP | Containment Breach (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$3.20$16250.70x5d

AWP | Containment Breach (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$3.20$16250.70x6d

AWP | Containment Breach (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert[email protected]$3.20$16250.70x6d

AWP | Containment Breach (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$3.20$16250.70x6d

AWP | Containment Breach (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert[email protected]$3.20$16250.70x7d

AWP | Containment Breach (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$3.20$16250.70x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

G3SG1 | Green Apple (Factory New)weapon · industrialLastHope$2.40$0.190.08x1m

G3SG1 | Green Apple (Factory New)weapon · industrialtominhoo$2.40$0.190.08x1m

G3SG1 | Green Apple (Factory New)weapon · industrial$2.40$0.190.08x13m

G3SG1 | Green Apple (Factory New)weapon · industrialSKIBA$2.40$0.190.08x13m

G3SG1 | Green Apple (Factory New)weapon · industrial76561199312606456$2.40$0.190.08x18m

G3SG1 | Green Apple (Factory New)weapon · industrialClancy Skins$2.40$0.190.08x18m

G3SG1 | Green Apple (Factory New)weapon · industrial$2.40$0.190.08x19m

G3SG1 | Green Apple (Factory New)weapon · industrialolejarzkrzysztof26$2.40$0.190.08x19m

G3SG1 | Green Apple (Factory New)weapon · industrial$2.40$0.190.08x19m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 84.25%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
6 Nov, 19:45 UTC	$2.40	84.25%	7
2 Nov, 21:50 UTC	$3.20	84.20%	7

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.1%classified 1.2%#4b69ff 1.0%blue 1.8%industrial 95.8%best hit $162 (50.70x)