Test ur luck
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$0.45
Advertised RTP
77.77%
EV $0.35 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.09%
91.2K openings, odds method
Variance
399.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 1,562
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 91.4K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/284, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 77.77%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 21:11 UTC | $0.45 | 77.77% | 12 |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $0.45 | 84.05% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.1%Immortal 0.0%extraordinary 0.0%#ffd700 0.0%consumer 99.8%best hit $604 (1,343x)