50% Boreal Forest
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$36.60
Advertised RTP
84.63%
EV $30.98 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.52%
695 openings, odds method
Variance
1.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
19.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
50.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 695 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Navaja Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · #ffd700 | 1 in 20 | $187 | 30.2% | 41 | 34.8 | 1.18× |
| ★ Navaja Knife | Boreal Forest (Well-Worn)knife · covert | 1 in 11 | $50.31 | 14.6% | 56 | 62.5 | 0.90× |
| ★ Navaja Knife | Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 20 | $50.25 | 8.1% | 23 | 34.8 | 0.66× |
| ★ Navaja Knife | Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred)knife · #ffd700 | 16.0% | $44.86 | 23.2% | 122 | 111.2 | 1.10× |
| ★ Navaja Knife | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · #ffd700 | 15.0% | $43.44 | 21.0% | 91 | 104.3 | 0.87× |
| M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 1 in 20 | $15.75 | 2.5% | 40 | 34.8 | 1.15× |
| M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon | 10.0% | $0.28 | 0.1% | 73 | 69.5 | 1.05× |
| M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Industrial Grade | 12.5% | $0.20 | 0.1% | 90 | 86.9 | 1.04× |
| M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Well-Worn)weapon · Industrial Grade | 10.0% | $0.19 | 0.1% | 64 | 69.5 | 0.92× |
| M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial | 12.5% | $0.15 | 0.1% | 95 | 86.9 | 1.09× |
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/29, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 84.63%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 18:07 UTC | $36.60 | 84.63% | 10 |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $36.70 | 84.52% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed#ffd700 36.0%covert 14.0%industrial 17.5%Uncommon 10.0%Industrial Grade 22.5%best hit —