10% Dragonfire
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$29.90
Advertised RTP
84.26%
EV $25.19 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.70%
753 openings, odds method
Variance
6.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 19
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 753 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 83 | $345 | 16.5% | 10 | 9.0 | 1.11× |
| SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 56 | $255 | 18.2% | 15 | 13.6 | 1.11× |
| SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 45 | $233 | 20.4% | 11 | 16.6 | 0.66× |
| SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 1 in 36 | $228 | 25.4% | 20 | 21.1 | 0.95× |
| SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $225 | 17.8% | 19 | 15.1 | 1.26× |
| SSG 08 | Abyss (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 59 | $4.29 | 0.3% | 12 | 12.8 | 0.94× |
| SSG 08 | Abyss (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 125 | $1.07 | 0.0% | 7 | 6.0 | 1.16× |
| SSG 08 | Abyss (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec | 29.0% | $0.53 | 0.6% | 226 | 218.4 | 1.03× |
| SSG 08 | Abyss (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff | 29.0% | $0.36 | 0.4% | 225 | 218.4 | 1.03× |
| SSG 08 | Abyss (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff | 29.5% | $0.35 | 0.4% | 208 | 222.1 | 0.94× |
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/30, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 84.26%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 11:42 UTC | $29.90 | 84.26% | 10 |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $38.90 | 84.35% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 10.0%mil spec 31.5%#4b69ff 58.5%best hit —