Esteban
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$2.00
Advertised RTP
88.69%
EV $1.77 from 32 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.60%
24.7K openings, odds method
Variance
3.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.2%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values32 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 24.8K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/309, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.69%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 18:07 UTC | $2.00 | 88.69% | 32 |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $2.00 | 88.81% | 29 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 8.2%covert 0.1%Restricted 0.1%restricted 2.4%pink 1.2%#d32ee6 3.3%violet 1.1%Uncommon 1.9%uncommon 2.4%Rare 4.0%#8847ff 1.6%Legendary 1.9%milspec 6.9%mil spec 41.6%#4b69ff 23.2%best hit $134 (67.02x)