10% The Emperor
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$7.90
Advertised RTP
84.72%
EV $6.69 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.19%
2,565 openings, odds method
Variance
6.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,565 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A4 | The Emperor (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 500 | $204 | 6.1% | 3 | 5.1 | 0.58× |
| M4A4 | The Emperor (Minimal Wear)weapon · red | 1 in 400 | $71.70 | 2.7% | 9 | 6.4 | 1.40× |
| M4A4 | The Emperor (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $61.74 | 18.4% | 53 | 51.3 | 1.03× |
| M4A4 | The Emperor (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 67 | $60.09 | 13.5% | 40 | 38.5 | 1.04× |
| M4A4 | The Emperor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 1 in 17 | $56.73 | 51.3% | 177 | 155.2 | 1.14× |
| M4A4 | Magnesium (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 33 | $4.95 | 2.2% | 81 | 77.0 | 1.05× |
| M4A4 | Magnesium (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 13 | $1.44 | 1.7% | 186 | 205.2 | 0.91× |
| M4A4 | Magnesium (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec | 19.0% | $0.53 | 1.5% | 509 | 487.4 | 1.04× |
| M4A4 | Magnesium (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec | 30.0% | $0.32 | 1.4% | 733 | 769.5 | 0.95× |
| M4A4 | Magnesium (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec | 30.0% | $0.26 | 1.2% | 774 | 769.5 | 1.01× |
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/31, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 84.72%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 11:42 UTC | $7.90 | 84.72% | 10 |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $9.40 | 84.46% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 9.8%red 0.3%mil spec 90.0%best hit —