Desert Eagle
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$4.00
Advertised RTP
88.91%
EV $3.56 from 53 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.23%
39.4K openings, odds method
Variance
7.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 12
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
71.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values53 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 39.5K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/317, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov, 19:45 UTC | $4.00 | 88.91% | 53 |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $4.00 | 88.98% | 53 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed1 7.9%rare 0.0%restricted 14.7%covert 0.2%#d32ee6 0.0%classified 2.8%industrial 0.1%mil spec 13.1%Ancient 0.3%Classified 0.3%blue 12.7%light blue 0.7%#8847ff 6.2%violet 3.5%Legendary 4.2%Mythical 2.9%#4b69ff 30.5%best hit $664 (166.0x)