MP9

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

Price

$3.00

Advertised RTP

88.98%

EV $2.67 from 48 items

Observed RTP, 30d

86.10%

12K openings, odds method

Variance

26.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 10

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

66.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

83.84%±26.231,473 openings

7 days

86.73%±9.959,797 openings

30 days

86.10%±8.8812K openings

since tracking started

86.10%±8.8812K openings

57.0%83.7%110.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,473	83.84%±26.2	−0.4σ	odds
7d	9,797	86.73%±9.95	−0.4σ	odds
30d	12K	86.10%±8.88	−0.6σ	odds
All	12K	86.10%±8.88	−0.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values48 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
MP9 \| Wild Lily (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 50,000	$2,251	1.7%	0	0.2	—
MP9 \| Wild Lily (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 50,000	$1,940	1.5%	0	0.2	—
MP9 \| Bulldozer (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 10,000	$357	1.3%	2	1.2	1.66×
MP9 \| Hot Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 7,143	$262	1.4%	0	1.7	0.00×
MP9 \| Stained Glass (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 4,000	$151	1.4%	3	3.0	1.00×
MP9 \| Dark Age (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 4,000	$147	1.4%	2	3.0	0.66×
MP9 \| Pandora's Box (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 3,448	$127	1.4%	3	3.5	0.86×
MP9 \| Bulldozer (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 3,030	$112	1.4%	4	4.0	1.01×
MP9 \| Dark Age (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 2,439	$90.38	1.4%	6	4.9	1.22×
MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 2,000	$74.12	1.4%	5	6.0	0.83×
MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 1,818	$67.65	1.4%	3	6.6	0.45×
MP9 \| Hydra (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,220	$45.40	1.4%	15	9.9	1.52×
MP9 \| Hypnotic (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 478	$27.62	2.2%	29	25.2	1.15×
MP9 \| Setting Sun (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 341	$19.78	2.2%	31	35.3	0.88×
MP9 \| Setting Sun (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 275	$15.89	2.2%	35	43.8	0.80×
MP9 \| Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 258	$14.94	2.2%	40	46.6	0.86×
MP9 \| Mount Fuji (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 254	$14.74	2.2%	53	47.3	1.12×
MP9 \| Airlock (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 243	$14.09	2.2%	49	49.5	0.99×
MP9 \| Hydra (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 242	$14.01	2.2%	41	49.7	0.82×
MP9 \| Airlock (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 222	$12.85	2.2%	51	54.2	0.94×
MP9 \| Deadly Poison (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 172	$9.92	2.2%	83	70.2	1.18×
MP9 \| Mount Fuji (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 170	$9.82	2.2%	73	70.9	1.03×
MP9 \| Rose Iron (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 157	$9.08	2.2%	69	76.7	0.90×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 130	$7.51	2.2%	92	92.7	0.99×
MP9 \| Rose Iron (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 117	$6.76	2.2%	106	103.1	1.03×
MP9 \| Music Box (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 109	$6.29	2.2%	105	110.8	0.95×
MP9 \| Hydra (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 47	$5.46	4.4%	247	257.3	0.96×
MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 45	$5.27	4.4%	221	266.6	0.83×
MP9 \| Mount Fuji (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 45	$5.21	4.4%	267	269.6	0.99×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 38	$4.42	4.4%	300	317.9	0.94×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 34	$3.93	4.4%	388	357.5	1.09×
MP9 \| Goo (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 32	$3.70	4.4%	351	379.7	0.92×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 32	$3.69	4.4%	375	380.7	0.98×
MP9 \| Dart (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 28	$3.32	4.4%	448	423.1	1.06×
MP9 \| Music Box (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 28	$3.24	4.4%	412	433.6	0.95×
MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 34	$1.20	1.3%	326	351.2	0.93×
MP9 \| Goo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$1.16	1.3%	364	363.3	1.00×
MP9 \| Capillary (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 29	$1.02	1.3%	349	413.1	0.84×
MP9 \| Deadly Poison (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 29	$1.00	1.3%	445	421.4	1.06×
MP9 \| Deadly Poison (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 21	$0.75	1.3%	505	562.0	0.90×
MP9 \| Dart (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 19	$0.68	1.3%	539	619.8	0.87×
MP9 \| Bioleak (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 28	$0.58	0.8%	410	430.1	0.95×
MP9 \| Capillary (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 21	$0.43	0.8%	633	580.0	1.09×
MP9 \| Modest Threat (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 20	$0.41	0.8%	607	608.3	1.00×
MP9 \| Bioleak (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 18	$0.37	0.8%	729	674.1	1.08×
MP9 \| Modest Threat (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 14	$0.30	0.8%	858	831.4	1.03×
MP9 \| Black Sand (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 12	$0.24	0.8%	1,119	1039.3	1.08×
MP9 \| Black Sand (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 11	$0.23	0.8%	1,248	1140.8	1.09×

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from g4skins:feed/cases/320, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

MP9 | Bulldozer (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedPinokio67 skins.army$3.00$357119.1x4d

MP9 | Bulldozer (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedYVNGXRIVEN$3.00$336112.1x6d

MP9 | Pandora's Box (Factory New)weapon · mil spec!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!$3.00$16855.96x7d

MP9 | Stained Glass (Factory New)weapon · restricted$3.00$16253.87x7d

MP9 | Stained Glass (Factory New)weapon · restricted$3.00$15150.42x16h

MP9 | Stained Glass (Factory New)weapon · restricted$3.00$15150.42x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MP9 | Capillary (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specStrazQ$3.00$0.430.14x5m

MP9 | Black Sand (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specPulek$3.00$0.240.08x5m

MP9 | Black Sand (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specStrazQ$3.00$0.240.08x5m

MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New)weapon · restrictedPulek$3.00$5.271.76x5m

MP9 | Setting Sun (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec[PRG]DoLaR$3.00$15.895.30x7m

MP9 | Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · restricted„CS2.ME”$3.00$14.944.98x7m

MP9 | Food Chain (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink[PRG]DoLaR$3.00$3.691.23x7m

MP9 | Modest Threat (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec„CS2.ME”$3.00$0.300.10x7m

MP9 | Black Sand (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$3.00$0.240.08x9m

MP9 | Goo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restrictedzxr$3.00$1.160.39x9m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.98%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
6 Nov, 13:17 UTC	$3.00	88.98%	48
2 Nov, 21:50 UTC	$3.00	88.91%	48

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 8.2%restricted 13.8%mil spec 44.4%#4b69ff 3.7%red 0.1%Ancient 0.1%#8847ff 2.4%violet 0.4%#d32ee6 0.9%pink 3.9%Rare 7.1%milspec 15.1%best hit $357 (119.1x)